- The Red Sox are -125 favorites vs the Mariners
- Mariners vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Mariners / Red Sox TV Channel: NESN | RTNW
The Seattle Mariners (-105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-115) on Monday, July 29, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Mariners are 56-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 48-56 ATS.
Mariners vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert 6-6, 2.73 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 4-7, 4.50 ERA
Mariners vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +155 | O 8.5 -105 | -105 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -115 | -115 |
Mariners vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cal Raleigh has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 12 away games (+14.80 Units / 123% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Singles Under in 34 of his last 48 games (+14.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 50 games (+13.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Logan Gilbert has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+13.65 Units / 53% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.95 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 30 games (+23.10 Units / 77% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Runs Over in 29 of his last 43 games (+13.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jamie Westbrook has hit the Singles Under in his last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+12.35 Units / 22% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 37 away games (+12.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 away games (+5.35 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.15 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 74 games (+4.85 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+4.75 Units / 35% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+13.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 37 games (+8.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+7.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 34 games at home (+7.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 54 of their last 104 games (+6.25 Units / 5% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 48-59 against the Run Line (-15.05 Units / -11.09% ROI).
- 56-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.5 Units / -5.34% ROI
- 44-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.3 Units / -17.43% ROI
- 59-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.65 Units / 9.09% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 48-56 against the Run Line (-15.7 Units / -11.39% ROI).
- 55-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -0.12% ROI
- 51-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.35 Units / -1.18% ROI
- 48-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.8 Units / -6.81% ROI
Red Sox vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Mitch Haniger (SEA) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Red Sox vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Victor Robles (SEA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Mitch Haniger (SEA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Red Sox vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Mitch Haniger (SEA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Red Sox vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta (BOS) | 6.5 -155 | 6.5 +120 |
| Logan Gilbert (SEA) | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +110 |
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .111 (36 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (4 games) — 2nd best among among AL Starters; League Avg: .282 — 98th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OPS of just .199 (36 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (4 games) — 2nd best among among AL Starters; League Avg: .665 — 98th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .178 (191 PA’s) versus the top of the order this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .314 — 100th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .201 (189 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .292 — 98th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has allowed a .826 SLG vs right-handed batters (second worst)– second Percentile and just .125 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (ninth best among qualified SPs)– 89th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has struck out 42% (15/36) of left-handed batters he faced this month (4 games) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (38/114) against Nick Pivetta with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 21% (7/33) against Nick Pivetta this month (4 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Mariners are 104-18 (.852) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .736.
The Mariners are just 4-15 (.211) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .360.
The Mariners are 57-7 (.891) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Mariners are 193-4 (.980) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Red Sox are just 31-39 (.443) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Red Sox are just 3-114 (.026) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Red Sox are just 5-180 (.027) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Red Sox are just 30-31 (.492) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .216 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Mariners are batting just .229 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Mariners hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Mariners are batting just .218 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 350 strikeouts in 1,229 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Red Sox are batting .259 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .233.
The Red Sox are batting .286 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .247 (951 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
Mariners pitchers have walked 49 of 951 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 3.12 (1236.0 IP) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.11.
Mariners pitchers have walked 146 of 2,406 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 282 of 3,950 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Red Sox have allowed 8.33 runs per game (75/9) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.34.
The Red Sox have allowed 9.17 runs per game (55/6) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.40.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Isaiah Campbell (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 7-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Story (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Chest, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Chris Martin (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Justin Slaten (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Garrett Whitlock (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Triston Casas (Boston Red Sox): Ribs, 60-Day IL
- J.P. Crawford (Seattle Mariners): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Dominic Canzone (Seattle Mariners): Thigh, 10-Day IL
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Achilles, 60-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Julio Rodriguez (Seattle Mariners): Ankle, 10-Day IL
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