- The Braves are -200 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Braves Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Marlins / Braves TV Channel: BSSE | BSFL | MLBN
The Miami Marlins (+165) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-200) on Thursday, August 1, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Marlins are 40-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 48-59 ATS.
Marlins vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Max Meyer 2-0, 3.05 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Charlie Morton 5-6, 4.24 ERA
Marlins vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -115 | O 8.5 -105 | +165 |
| Braves | -1.5 -105 | U 8.5 -115 | -200 |
Marlins vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 62.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 26 games (+21.40 Units / 82% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+16.45 Units / 62% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 26 games (+14.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.85 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 28 of his last 38 games (+16.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 19 games at home (+14.65 Units / 77% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 39 games (+14.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+13.50 Units / 78% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 49 away games (+15.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 81 games (+13.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.90 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+7.30 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 37 games (+6.80 Units / 15% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 93 games (+27.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.25 Units / 78% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 56% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 51-57 against the Run Line (-22.46 Units / -15.77% ROI).
- 40-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.7 Units / -14.62% ROI
- 60-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.1 Units / 9.31% ROI
- 45-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.05 Units / -16.93% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 48-59 against the Run Line (-12.7 Units / -10% ROI).
- 58-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.75 Units / -9.12% ROI
- 39-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -29.7 Units / -25.4% ROI
- 63-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.9 Units / 16.78% ROI
Braves vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Braves vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Emmanuel Rivera (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Whit Merrifield (ATL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Sean Murphy (ATL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Braves vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Braves vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton (ATL) | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
| Max Meyer (MIA) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Meyer has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last five games dating back to July 23rd, 2022 — Ben Lively has the longest active streak at 7.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton has walked 71 of 716 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — fourth Percentile.
Charlie Morton has walked 45 of 431 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — sixth Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (132/378) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total CB; League Avg: 9% — 98th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 52% of the time (552/1,065) with runners in scoring position since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins are just 10-15 (.400) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .638.
The Marlins are just 13-13 (.500) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .761.
The Marlins are just 11-15 (.423) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Marlins are just 21-9 (.700) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves are just 7-15 (.318) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Braves are just 3-8 (.273) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .429.
The Braves are 50-62 (.446) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Braves are 217-56 (.795) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have an OPS of .819 (2,459 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
Braves hitters are slugging .464 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Braves hitters are slugging .483 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
The Braves had an average Exit Velocity of 91.0 MPH in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 8% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Marlins have won just just 13% of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.6 MPH (2,511 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.6 MPH this season (2,511 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Braves vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jimmy Herget (Atlanta Braves): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tyler Matzek (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Michael Harris (Atlanta Braves): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Spencer Strider (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Fried (Atlanta Braves): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Luplow (Atlanta Braves): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Austin Riley (Atlanta Braves): Personal, Paternity
- Ray Kerr (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ozzie Albies (Atlanta Braves): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Ronald Acuna (Atlanta Braves): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Peyton Burdick (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dane Myers (Miami Marlins): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Sixto Sanchez (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ryan Weathers (Miami Marlins): Finger, 60-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jesus Luzardo (Miami Marlins): Back, 60-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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