- The Braves are -225 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Braves Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Marlins / Braves TV Channel: BSSE | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+200) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-250) on Saturday, August 3, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Marlins are 40-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 50-59 ATS.
Marlins vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Kyle Tyler 0-2, 4.81 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Grant Holmes 0-0, 2.54 ERA
Marlins vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -105 | O 9 -105 | +200 |
| Braves | -1.5 -115 | U 9 -115 | -250 |
Marlins vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 63.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 28 games (+25.10 Units / 90% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 27 games (+15.95 Units / 54% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 28 games (+15.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 24 games (+14.85 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+14.15 Units / 58% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+23.20 Units / 387% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+15.65 Units / 43% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 40 games (+15.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+13.85 Units / 72% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in 32 of his last 41 games (+13.60 Units / 17% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 51 away games (+17.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 83 games (+11.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games (+7.30 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 games (+5.30 Units / 35% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 62 of their last 95 games (+29.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.05 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 50% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 51-59 against the Run Line (-24.56 Units / -16.99% ROI).
- 40-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.7 Units / -16.09% ROI
- 60-47 when betting on the total runs Over for +9 Units / 7.42% ROI
- 47-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.05 Units / -14.95% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 50-59 against the Run Line (-10.7 Units / -8.27% ROI).
- 60-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.75 Units / -7.76% ROI
- 39-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -31.8 Units / -26.71% ROI
- 65-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +21.9 Units / 18.11% ROI
Braves vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -300 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Sean Murphy (ATL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Braves vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Orlando Arcia (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Sean Murphy (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Braves vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Orlando Arcia (ATL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Braves vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Tyler (MIA) | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
| Grant Holmes (ATL) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Tyler has limited playing time.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Grant Holmes has walked 5 of 107 batters (5%) this season — tied for 14th best among among 217 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 94th Percentile.
Grant Holmes has allowed an OPS of just .503 (107 PA’s) this season — 15th best among among 217 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .675 — 93rd Percentile.
Grant Holmes has allowed a slugging percentage of just .260 (26 Total Bases / 100 ABs) this season — tied for 14th best among among 217 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .368 — 94th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 55% of Grant Holmes’ pitches (206/378) this season — tied for 6th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 97th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins are just 13-13 (.500) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .760.
The Marlins are just 11-16 (.407) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .703.
The Marlins are just 3-4 (.429) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .806.
The Marlins are just 3-37 (.075) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves are just 3-8 (.273) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Braves are just 7-15 (.318) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Braves are 51-62 (.451) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Braves are 138-76 (.645) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .527.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Marlins hitters have 267 extra-base hits out of 873 total hits (just 31%) against LHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Marlins hitters have drawn 168 walks in 2,774 PA’s (6%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have an OPS of .818 (2,463 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
Braves hitters are slugging .467 against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Braves are batting .303 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Braves have an average Exit Velocity of 90.7 MPH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have won only 8% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 19% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Marlins have allowed 5.45 runs per game (305/56) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.39.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.6 MPH this season (2,552 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.6 MPH (2,552 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.
Braves pitchers have walked 52 of 971 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jimmy Herget (Atlanta Braves): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tyler Matzek (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Michael Harris (Atlanta Braves): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Spencer Strider (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Fried (Atlanta Braves): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Luplow (Atlanta Braves): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Austin Riley (Atlanta Braves): Personal, Paternity
- Ray Kerr (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ozzie Albies (Atlanta Braves): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Ronald Acuna (Atlanta Braves): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Peyton Burdick (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dane Myers (Miami Marlins): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Sixto Sanchez (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ryan Weathers (Miami Marlins): Finger, 60-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jesus Luzardo (Miami Marlins): Back, 60-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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