- The Brewers are -225 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Marlins / Brewers TV Channel: BSFL | BSWI
The Miami Marlins (+185) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-225) on Friday, July 26, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Marlins are 37-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 54-48 ATS.
Marlins vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers 1-9, 4.61 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta 6-5, 3.91 ERA
Marlins vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -105 | O 8 -115 | +185 |
| Brewers | -1.5 -115 | U 8 -105 | -225 |
Marlins vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s MLB game with 64.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+20.60 Units / 515% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 away games (+16.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+15.60 Units / 74% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+12.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.90 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 18 games at home (+14.40 Units / 80% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+12.30 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 24 games (+12.25 Units / 49% ROI)
- Sal Frelick has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+11.65 Units / 53% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+11.45 Units / 32% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 44 away games (+16.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 50 of their last 85 games (+12.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 44 away games (+10.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 32 games (+6.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+3.65 Units / 46% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 34 games at home (+11.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 59 of their last 102 games (+11.75 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+10.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 102 games (+10.60 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+8.70 Units / 22% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 48-55 against the Run Line (-23.01 Units / -16.87% ROI).
- 37-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.35 Units / -18.64% ROI
- 56-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.1 Units / 6.24% ROI
- 45-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.7 Units / -13.9% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 54-48 against the Run Line (+3.4 Units / 2.52% ROI).
- 59-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.75 Units / 9.15% ROI
- 54-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.35 Units / 6.6% ROI
- 43-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.6 Units / -14.69% ROI
Brewers vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Brewers vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Joey Ortiz (MIL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Brewers vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Brewers vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Rogers (MIA) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
| Freddy Peralta (MIL) | 7.5 +115 | 7.5 -150 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 50% (183/369) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has allowed an OBP of .440 (184 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 170 total IP; League Avg: .322 — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 33% of Trevor Rogers’ breaking pitches (120/369) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 27% (73/268) against Trevor Rogers on low breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 46% — first Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 31% (141 SO in 449 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has allowed a slugging percentage of just .259 (42 Total Bases / 162 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .371 — 98th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 32% (146 SO in 450 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 96th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 58% (387/662) in two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — fourth Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Marlins are just 19-9 (.679) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .859.
The Marlins are just 9-14 (.391) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .702.
The Marlins are just 11-12 (.478) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .759.
The Marlins are just 2-4 (.333) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .800.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Brewers are 46-112 (.291) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Brewers are 59-33 (.641) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .522.
The Brewers are 14-7 (.667) after a home loss this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .543.
The Brewers are 22-13 (.629) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .283 (1,219 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .617 (1,219 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Marlins hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Marlins hitters have 263 extra-base hits out of 861 total hits (just 30%) against LHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .341 (1,730 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .332 (2,953 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Brewers hitters have 32 extra-base hits out of 120 total hits (just 27%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .269 (2,125 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 9% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 11 of 89 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.73 (1189.1 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.35.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.73 (2348.1 IP) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.22.
The Brewers have won 52% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Brewers vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- DL Hall (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Joe Ross (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Greg Allen (Milwaukee Brewers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- J.B. Bukauskas (Milwaukee Brewers): Triceps, 60-Day IL
- Abner Uribe (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 7-Day IL
- Christian Yelich (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 10-Day IL
- Oliver Dunn (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Peyton Burdick (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dane Myers (Miami Marlins): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Sixto Sanchez (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ryan Weathers (Miami Marlins): Finger, 60-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jesus Luzardo (Miami Marlins): Back, 60-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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