- The Mets are -190 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Mets Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Marlins / Mets TV Channel: SNY | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+160) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-190) on Saturday, August 17, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Marlins are 45-77 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 59-63 ATS.
Marlins vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Max Meyer 3-2, 5.25 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 7-6, 4.16 ERA
Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -130 | O 8.5 -110 | +160 |
| Mets | -1.5 +110 | U 8.5 -110 | -190 |
Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 58.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Home Runs Over in 17 of his last 40 games (+47.00 Units / 117% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 40 games (+21.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 39 games (+21.05 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 32 games (+20.90 Units / 56% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 36 games (+19.10 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 37 games (+37.50 Units / 101% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 29 games (+15.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jose Iglesias has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 38 games (+14.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+12.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 42 games (+10.00 Units / 12% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 30 games (+19.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 55 of their last 95 games (+15.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 56 away games (+14.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 27 games (+11.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+7.90 Units / 26% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 30 games at home (+15.15 Units / 42% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 23 games at home (+12.45 Units / 49% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 24 games at home (+10.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 25 games at home (+10.25 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.05 Units / 12% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 57-65 against the Run Line (-26.31 Units / -16.53% ROI).
- 45-77 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.15 Units / -13.38% ROI
- 68-50 when betting on the total runs Over for +13.7 Units / 10.16% ROI
- 50-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.65 Units / -17.7% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 59-63 against the Run Line (-7.55 Units / -4.88% ROI).
- 63-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.9 Units / -1.93% ROI
- 62-54 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.4 Units / 1.8% ROI
- 54-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.2 Units / -10.11% ROI
Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Meyer (MIA) | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
| Luis Severino (NYM) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Meyer has allowed an OBP of .519 (27 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (3 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .302 — first Percentile.
Max Meyer has allowed a slugging percentage of .618 (21 Total Bases / 34 ABs) with two-strikes this month (3 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .254 — first Percentile.
Max Meyer has allowed a slugging percentage of .618 (21 Total Bases / 34 ABs) with two-strikes this month (3 games) — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: .281 — second Percentile.
Max Meyer has allowed an OPS of 1.227 (27 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (3 games) — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .733 — third Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
BASE __basic__ __PitcherId__ __PI_NQSP__ __LongestHRDistance_P__ __RHB__ PresentPerfect
BASE __basic__ __PitcherId__ __PI_NQSP__ __LongestHRDistance_P__ __Overall__ PresentPerfect
Luis Severino has walked 24 of 281 right-handed batters (9%) this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 15th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (73/399) against Luis Severino this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 3-4 (.429) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .807.
The Marlins are just 15-16 (.484) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .758.
The Marlins are just 3-28 (.097) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Marlins are just 14-18 (.438) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are just 14-62 (.184) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .259.
The Mets are just 50-6 (.893) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .945.
The Mets are 123-29 (.809) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .736.
The Mets are 10-5 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .286 (1,454 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Marlins hitters have chased 34% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 38% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .366 against LHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters are slugging .446 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .773 (1,238 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
The Mets are batting .256 on the road since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .758 (2,322 PA’s) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers this season traveled 518.2 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 465.5
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have allowed 5.68 runs per game (358/63) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.42.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 240 of 2,503 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 470 of 4,668 batters (10%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 1,061 of 10,752 batters (10%) since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 57 of 492 batters (12%) over the last 14 days — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Drew Smith (New York Mets): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Grant Hartwig (New York Mets): Knee, 7-Day IL
- Tim Locastro (New York Mets): Undisclosed, 60-Day IL
- Starling Marte (New York Mets): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Brooks Raley (New York Mets): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Reed Garrett (New York Mets): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Peyton Burdick (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dane Myers (Miami Marlins): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Sixto Sanchez (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ryan Weathers (Miami Marlins): Finger, 60-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jesus Luzardo (Miami Marlins): Back, 60-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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