- The Nationals are -120 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Marlins / Nationals TV Channel: MAS2 | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+100) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-120) on Sunday, June 16, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Marlins are 23-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 43-27 ATS.
Marlins vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 3-5, 5.17 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Mitchell Parker 4-3, 3.25 ERA
Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -210 | O 8.5 -125 | +100 |
| Nationals | -1.5 +160 | U 8.5 -105 | -120 |
Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 47 games (+19.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+11.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 12 away games (+11.60 Units / 86% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+9.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+8.90 Units / 16% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 30 games (+13.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+12.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 34 games (+12.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+11.65 Units / 58% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+9.80 Units / 33% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 65 games (+13.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 30 away games (+8.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 52 games (+8.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 away games (+4.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 14 away games (+3.35 Units / 16% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 62 games (+16.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 62 games (+15.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 62 games (+11.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+6.00 Units / 22% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 28-42 against the Run Line (-27.31 Units / -28.52% ROI).
- 23-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.4 Units / -28.42% ROI
- 37-32 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.35 Units / 3.06% ROI
- 32-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.3 Units / -10.77% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 43-27 against the Run Line (+12.88 Units / 14.1% ROI).
- 34-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.15 Units / 16.85% ROI
- 31-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.15 Units / -9.34% ROI
- 35-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.73 Units / 0.94% ROI
Nationals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Nationals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Nationals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Nationals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo (MIA) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +110 |
| Mitchell Parker (WAS) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .196 (68-for-347) against Jesus Luzardo when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 96th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has walked 33 of 378 batters (9%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 10th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OBP of .318 (377 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .293 — 16th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has a strikeout rate of 32% (121 SO in 378 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 86th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitchell Parker has a strikeout rate of just 6% (3 SO in 47 PAs) over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 22% — fourth Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has struck out just 9% (5/57) of right-handed batters he faced this month (3 games) — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — fifth Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has a strikeout rate of just 11% (2 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for 4th lowest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 24% — 19th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .125 (2-for-16) against Mitchell Parker when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for 7th best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .229 — 88th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 7-8 (.467) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .760.
The Marlins are just 1-24 (.040) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Marlins are just 20-15 (.571) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Marlins are just 14-7 (.667) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .849.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are 6-1 (.857) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .579.
The Nationals are just 40-59 (.404) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.
The Nationals are just 75-119 (.387) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Nationals are just 60-98 (.380) after a win since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .511.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.78 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 36% against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Nationals hitters have drawn 113 walks in 2,066 PA’s (6%) when leading off an inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals hitters have 697 extra-base hits out of 2,254 total hits (just 31%) against RHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 7% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Marlins have allowed 5.81 runs per game (215/37) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.33.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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