- The Phillies are -200 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Phillies Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Marlins / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+165) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-200) on Tuesday, August 13, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Marlins are 44-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 59-59 ATS.
Marlins vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Valente Bellozo 1-1, 3.05 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker 3-3, 5.72 ERA
Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -130 | O 9 -115 | +165 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +105 | U 9 -105 | -200 |
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 59.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Home Runs Over in 15 of his last 37 games (+41.75 Units / 113% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 36 games (+20.15 Units / 49% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 37 games (+19.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 33 games (+18.50 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 29 games (+17.70 Units / 52% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games at home (+15.40 Units / 154% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 47 games (+11.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+11.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Under in 25 of his last 32 games (+10.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 27 games (+16.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 53 away games (+15.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 92 games (+15.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 games (+12.30 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games (+9.00 Units / 33% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 50 games at home (+16.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 48 games at home (+16.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 59 of their last 101 games (+10.40 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 47 games at home (+9.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+8.10 Units / 25% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 56-63 against the Run Line (-24.91 Units / -16.01% ROI).
- 44-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.9 Units / -13.5% ROI
- 66-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.8 Units / 9.73% ROI
- 49-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.45 Units / -17.22% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 59-59 against the Run Line (-2.25 Units / -1.57% ROI).
- 69-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.3 Units / -1.22% ROI
- 55-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.4 Units / -7.21% ROI
- 58-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.8 Units / -2.17% ROI
Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -300 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Taijuan Walker (PHI) | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -110 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Valente Bellozo has walked 3 of 18 batters (17%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (2 games) — tied for highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 6% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 21% (6/29) against Valente Bellozo this month (2 games) — lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.
Valente Bellozo has a strikeout rate of 33% (6 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (2 games) — tied for 4th best among among NL Starters; League Avg: 24% — 93rd Percentile.
Valente Bellozo has allowed a slugging percentage of just .133 (2 Total Bases / 15 ABs) vs left-handed batters this month (2 games) — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .400 — 95th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Taijuan Walker has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 92.4 MPH this season (163 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .379 (22 GB hits out of 58 GBs) against Taijuan Walker this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 52% (84/163) against Taijuan Walker this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: 40% — first Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has allowed a slugging percentage of .510 (104 Total Bases / 204 ABs) this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: .404 — third Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are just 15-15 (.500) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .757.
The Marlins are just 3-4 (.429) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Marlins are just 13-18 (.419) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .700.
The Marlins are just 26-14 (.650) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .800.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are just 2-10 (.167) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 6-2 (.750) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Phillies are 38-20 (.655) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .522.
The Phillies are 17-11 (.607) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .629 (1,413 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .721.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .297 (4,118 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .286 (1,413 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .342 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Games involving the Phillies went OVER in 89% of their games (69.3% ROI) after a loss as underdogs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .779 (5,048 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Phillies are batting .263 against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Phillies are batting .269 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers this season traveled 518.2 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 465.5
The Marlins have allowed 5.68 runs per game (358/63) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.43.
Marlins pitchers have won only 5% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 9% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .199 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Phillies have won 52% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Phillies have won 53% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 60-Day IL
- Rodolfo Castro (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Peyton Burdick (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dane Myers (Miami Marlins): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Sixto Sanchez (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ryan Weathers (Miami Marlins): Finger, 60-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jesus Luzardo (Miami Marlins): Back, 60-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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