- The Phillies are -185 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Phillies Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Marlins / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | BSFL | ESPN+
The Miami Marlins (+150) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-185) on Wednesday, August 14, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Marlins are 45-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 59-60 ATS.
Marlins vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera 2-3, 5.24 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Tyler Phillips 4-1, 4.84 ERA
Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -135 | O 9 -115 | +150 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +110 | U 9 -105 | -185 |
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 59.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Home Runs Over in 16 of his last 38 games (+44.90 Units / 118% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 38 games (+21.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 29 of his last 37 games (+21.15 Units / 50% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 34 games (+19.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 30 games (+18.70 Units / 53% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 11 games at home (+14.40 Units / 131% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+12.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Under in 26 of his last 33 games (+11.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+11.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 48 games (+10.70 Units / 22% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 28 games (+17.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 54 away games (+14.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 93 games (+13.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 25 games (+13.90 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games (+10.10 Units / 36% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 49 games at home (+15.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 51 games at home (+14.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 59 of their last 102 games (+9.40 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games at home (+9.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+9.05 Units / 28% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 57-63 against the Run Line (-23.91 Units / -15.25% ROI).
- 45-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.15 Units / -12% ROI
- 66-50 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.7 Units / 8.82% ROI
- 50-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -21.45 Units / -16.32% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 59-60 against the Run Line (-3.25 Units / -2.25% ROI).
- 69-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.35 Units / -2.29% ROI
- 55-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.5 Units / -7.98% ROI
- 59-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.8 Units / -1.38% ROI
Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -800 |
Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Edward Cabrera (MIA) | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
| Tyler Phillips (PHI) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Edward Cabrera has walked 97 of 676 batters (14%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 44 of 258 batters (17%) versus the top of the order since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 130 of 967 batters (13%) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 176 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 68 of 442 batters (15%) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tyler Phillips has allowed an OPS of 1.489 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (2 games) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .739 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .467 (7-for-15) against Tyler Phillips when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (2 games) — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .245 — third Percentile.
Tyler Phillips has a strikeout rate of just 11% (4 SO in 36 PAs) this month (2 games) — tied for 15th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 10th Percentile.
Tyler Phillips has allowed an OBP of .556 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (2 games) — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .310 — second Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are just 3-4 (.429) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .804.
The Marlins are just 15-15 (.500) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .759.
The Marlins are just 13-16 (.448) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .644.
The Marlins are just 25-12 (.676) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are just 2-10 (.167) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 17-11 (.607) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
The Phillies are just 9-17 (.346) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 60-10 (.857) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .298 (4,124 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .630 (1,419 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .720.
Marlins hitters have chased 34% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .344 (1,433 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Games involving the Phillies went OVER in 89% of their games (69.3% ROI) after a loss as underdogs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .444 against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .784 (3,302 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers this season traveled 518.2 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 465.5
The Marlins have allowed 5.68 runs per game (358/63) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.42.
Marlins pitchers have won only 9% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 60-Day IL
- Rodolfo Castro (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Peyton Burdick (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dane Myers (Miami Marlins): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Sixto Sanchez (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ryan Weathers (Miami Marlins): Finger, 60-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jesus Luzardo (Miami Marlins): Back, 60-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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