- The Pirates are -145 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Pirates Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Marlins / Pirates TV Channel: BSFL | SNPT
The Miami Marlins (+130) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-155) on Tuesday, September 10, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Marlins are 54-90 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 78-66 ATS.
Marlins vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Adam Oller 1-2, 4.16 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Carmen Mlodzinski 2-5, 3.80 ERA
Marlins vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -165 | O 8.5 +100 | +130 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +140 | U 8.5 -120 | -155 |
Marlins vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 52.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jonah Bride has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 35 games (+33.00 Units / 94% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 35 of his last 50 games (+17.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+15.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 36 of his last 49 games (+15.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+14.25 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Joey Bart has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 23 games (+24.50 Units / 107% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 27 games (+17.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Hits Over in his last 12 games at home (+12.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Yasmani Grandal has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+11.70 Units / 117% ROI)
- Joey Bart has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+10.50 Units / 117% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 35 of their last 52 games (+17.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 66 away games (+15.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 117 games (+14.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 23 away games (+9.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 49 games (+8.50 Units / 17% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 60 of their last 105 games (+13.70 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 40 of their last 67 games (+11.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 56 games at home (+10.60 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+9.50 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.20 Units / 54% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 68-76 against the Run Line (-28.11 Units / -15% ROI).
- 54-90 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.7 Units / -11.11% ROI
- 78-60 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.35 Units / 7.76% ROI
- 60-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.8 Units / -15.73% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 78-66 against the Run Line (+8.61 Units / 4.63% ROI).
- 68-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.55 Units / -5.69% ROI
- 70-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.15 Units / -3.85% ROI
- 69-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.07 Units / -4.5% ROI
Pirates vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Pirates vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Pirates vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Pirates vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Oller (MIA) | 3.5 -175 | 3.5 +130 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) | 1.5 +105 | 1.5 -140 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adam Oller has walked 7 of 46 batters (15%) over the last 14 days — highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.
Adam Oller has a strike rate of just 58% (104/180) in his last two starts — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — fourth Percentile.
Adam Oller has a first-pitch strike rate of just 54% (25/46) over the last 14 days — 4th lowest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 64% — eighth Percentile.
Adam Oller has walked 7 of 46 batters (15%) in his last two starts — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .100 (3-for-30) against Carmen Mlodzinski’s elevated fastball this season — tied for 13th best among among 130 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .196 — 90th Percentile.
Carmen Mlodzinski has a strike rate of just 59% (136/229) in two strike counts this season — 7th lowest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 65% — seventh Percentile.
Carmen Mlodzinski has induced opposing hitters to ground into just 1 double play in 34 opportunities (3%) this season — 6th lowest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 10% — sixth Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of just 31% (8/26) against Carmen Mlodzinski when he’s behind in the count this season — 5th lowest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 41% — sixth Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Marlins are just 32-13 (.711) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .858.
The Marlins are just 21-18 (.538) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .750.
The Marlins are just 5-36 (.122) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Marlins are just 7-6 (.538) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .803.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Pirates are just 9-28 (.243) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
The Pirates are just 17-30 (.362) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 56-7 (.889) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Pirates are just 7-33 (.175) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .296 (4,415 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 37% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .634 (1,710 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .711.
The Marlins are just 17-50 (.254) against the run line (-49.2% ROI) when slight moneyline favorites (-101 to -149) since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .455.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .495 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Pirates hitters have 447 strikeouts in 1,324 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have 55 extra-base hits out of 207 total hits (just 27%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Pirates are batting just .236 against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.14 (697.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.99.
The Marlins have allowed 5.84 runs per game (438/75) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.42.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 14% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,629 of 17,991 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have 237 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 2nd most in MLB.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 54% of their games since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% over the last 14 days — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Pittsburgh Pirates – No Injuries Reported
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
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