- The Pirates are -175 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Marlins / Pirates TV Channel: BSFL | SNPT | MLBN
The Miami Marlins (+135) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-160) on Wednesday, September 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Marlins are 54-91 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 79-66 ATS.
Marlins vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jonathan Bermudez 0-0, 6.76 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 7-7, 4.47 ERA
Marlins vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -150 | O 8.5 +100 | +135 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +125 | U 8.5 -120 | -160 |
Marlins vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 57.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jonah Bride has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 36 games (+32.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 35 of his last 50 games (+17.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+15.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 36 of his last 49 games (+15.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+14.25 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Joey Bart has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 24 games (+23.50 Units / 98% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 28 games (+15.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- Joey Bart has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+12.05 Units / 121% ROI)
- Yasmani Grandal has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+11.70 Units / 117% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.65 Units / 58% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 35 of their last 53 games (+15.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 66 of their last 118 games (+15.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 67 away games (+14.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 24 away games (+8.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 50 games (+7.50 Units / 15% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 61 of their last 106 games (+15.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 68 games (+12.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 34 of their last 57 games at home (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 18 games at home (+10.50 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.20 Units / 58% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 68-77 against the Run Line (-29.61 Units / -15.68% ROI).
- 54-91 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.7 Units / -11.69% ROI
- 79-60 when betting on the total runs Over for +13.35 Units / 8.33% ROI
- 60-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -25.85 Units / -16.28% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 79-66 against the Run Line (+9.91 Units / 5.31% ROI).
- 69-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.55 Units / -5.05% ROI
- 71-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.15 Units / -3.2% ROI
- 69-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.12 Units / -5.13% ROI
Pirates vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Pirates vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jonah Bride (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Pirates vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jonathan Bermudez has limited playing time.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 15% (46/306) against Bailey Falter with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (57/178) against Bailey Falter with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Bailey Falter has an average spin rate of 1946.1 RPM on curveballs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 2532.5 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .226 (84-for-372) against Bailey Falter with two-strikes since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: .170 — second Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Marlins are just 21-18 (.538) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .750.
The Marlins are just 32-13 (.711) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .858.
The Marlins are just 17-30 (.362) after a home loss this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Marlins are just 36-53 (.404) after a loss this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .508.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Pirates are just 6-42 (.125) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates are just 17-30 (.362) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 57-7 (.891) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Pirates are just 179-14 (.927) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .296 (4,433 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .285 (1,728 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 58 extra-base hits out of 211 total hits (just 28%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .497 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .302 (5,306 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates hitters have 447 strikeouts in 1,324 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.14 (697.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.99.
The Marlins have allowed 5.84 runs per game (438/75) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.42.
Marlins pitchers have walked 502 of 5,606 batters (9%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,633 of 18,031 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .295 against Pirates pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Pirates pitchers have 495 three-pitch strikeouts since last season — 5th most in MLB.
Pirates pitchers have allowed a run 34% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Pirates vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Pittsburgh Pirates – No Injuries Reported
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
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