- The Pirates are -250 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Pirates Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Marlins / Pirates TV Channel: BSFL | SNPT
The Miami Marlins (+200) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-250) on Monday, September 9, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Marlins are 54-89 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 78-65 ATS.
Marlins vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Valente Bellozo 2-2, 3.78 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes 9-2, 2.13 ERA
Marlins vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -105 | O 7.5 -105 | +200 |
| Pirates | -1.5 -115 | U 7.5 -115 | -250 |
Marlins vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Monday‘s MLB game with 68.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jonah Bride has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 34 games (+34.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 35 of his last 50 games (+17.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+15.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+15.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 35 of his last 48 games (+14.10 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Joey Bart has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 23 games (+24.50 Units / 107% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 27 games (+17.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- Yasmani Grandal has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+12.70 Units / 141% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 27 games (+11.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- Joey Bart has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+10.50 Units / 117% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 35 of their last 51 games (+18.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 116 games (+15.80 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 65 away games (+14.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 away games (+10.65 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 48 games (+9.50 Units / 19% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 60 of their last 104 games (+14.95 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 40 of their last 66 games (+12.60 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+10.70 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 55 games at home (+9.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.20 Units / 55% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 67-76 against the Run Line (-29.16 Units / -15.65% ROI).
- 54-89 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.7 Units / -10.51% ROI
- 78-59 when betting on the total runs Over for +13.55 Units / 8.58% ROI
- 59-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -25.8 Units / -16.46% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 78-65 against the Run Line (+9.86 Units / 5.34% ROI).
- 67-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.55 Units / -6.39% ROI
- 70-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.95 Units / -3.12% ROI
- 68-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.07 Units / -5.17% ROI
Pirates vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Rowdy Tellez (PIT) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Connor Joe (PIT) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Pirates vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Pirates vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Rowdy Tellez (PIT) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Pirates vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Valente Bellozo (MIA) | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -115 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 21% (4/19) against Valente Bellozo in his last start — 7th lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 40% — seventh Percentile.
Valente Bellozo had a first-pitch strike rate of just 50% (11/22) in his last start — tied for 8th lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 63% — 10th Percentile.
Opponents had a chase percentage of just 20% (7/35) against Valente Bellozo in his last start — tied for 6th lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 30% — seventh Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Paul Skenes has a strikeout rate of 38% (65 SO in 171 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has a strikeout rate of 38% (44 SO in 117 PAs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has a strikeout rate of 32% (142 SO in 444 PAs) this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 97th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has struck out 32% (73/231) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 97th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Marlins are just 21-18 (.538) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .750.
The Marlins are just 7-6 (.538) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Marlins are just 135-37 (.785) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .866.
The Marlins are just 32-13 (.711) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .858.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Pirates are just 17-30 (.362) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 55-7 (.887) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Pirates are just 6-42 (.125) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates are just 107-24 (.817) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .859.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .284 (1,704 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .662 (4,409 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .296 (4,409 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .191 in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .234.
The Pirates are batting just .155 with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Pirates hitters have 446 strikeouts in 1,323 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have 1,352 strikeouts in 5,303 PA’s (26%) against LHP since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.14 (697.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.99.
The Marlins have allowed 5.84 runs per game (438/75) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.43.
The Marlins have allowed 5.18 runs per game (741/143) this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.42.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,627 of 17,955 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .295 against Pirates pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Pirates pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 3,144 times since last season — 5th most in MLB.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Pittsburgh Pirates – No Injuries Reported
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
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