- The Rays are -225 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Rays Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Marlins / Rays TV Channel: BSFL | BSUN | ESPN+
The Miami Marlins (+195) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-250) on Wednesday, July 31, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 12:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.
This season, the Marlins are 39-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 53-54 ATS.
Marlins vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Roddery Munoz 1-5, 5.58 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Taj Bradley 6-4, 2.43 ERA
Marlins vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -105 | O 7.5 -120 | +195 |
| Rays | -1.5 -115 | U 7.5 +100 | -250 |
Marlins vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 64.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 25 games (+16.60 Units / 66% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+15.45 Units / 60% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 24 games (+14.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+11.85 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 35 games (+19.80 Units / 57% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 46 games (+13.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- Alex Jackson has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 32 games (+12.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- Brandon Lowe has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 26 games (+12.35 Units / 47% ROI)
- Alex Jackson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+11.10 Units / 52% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 48 away games (+16.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 80 games (+12.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 51 of their last 89 games (+9.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 36 games (+5.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+5.10 Units / 43% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 65 of their last 104 games (+23.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 36 games (+12.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 98 games (+10.00 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games at home (+9.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 34 games (+8.40 Units / 21% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 50-57 against the Run Line (-23.56 Units / -16.65% ROI).
- 39-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.9 Units / -16.7% ROI
- 59-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.1 Units / 8.55% ROI
- 45-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.95 Units / -16.16% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 53-54 against the Run Line (-3.7 Units / -2.61% ROI).
- 55-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.05 Units / -4.57% ROI
- 51-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.95 Units / -5.9% ROI
- 53-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.7 Units / -2.29% ROI
Rays vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel (TB) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Rays vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jose Caballero (TB) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Christopher Morel (TB) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Rays vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel (TB) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jose Caballero (TB) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jonny DeLuca (TB) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Rays vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Taj Bradley (TB) | 6.5 -125 | 6.5 -105 |
| Roddery Munoz (MIA) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -160 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Roddery Munoz has allowed a slugging percentage of .750 (33 Total Bases / 44 ABs) on fastballs away this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: .371 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (57/185) against Roddery Munoz this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Roddery Munoz has allowed a slugging percentage of .517 (120 Total Bases / 232 ABs) this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: .402 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .140 (8 GB hits out of 57 GBs) against Roddery Munoz this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 99th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting just .070 (3-for-43) against Taj Bradley this month (4 games) — best among among AL Starters; League Avg: .244 — 100th Percentile.
Taj Bradley has allowed a slugging percentage of just .070 (3 Total Bases / 43 ABs) against right-handed batters this month (4 games) — best among among AL Starters; League Avg: .391 — 100th Percentile.
Taj Bradley has a strikeout rate of 41% (51 SO in 126 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Taj Bradley has allowed an OBP of just .136 (44 PA’s) over the last 14 days — best among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .292 — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Marlins are just 10-15 (.400) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .638.
The Marlins are just 10-15 (.400) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .702.
The Marlins are just 3-4 (.429) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Marlins are just 13-13 (.500) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .760.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Rays are 9-42 (.176) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .106.
The Rays are just 22-44 (.333) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Rays are 55-4 (.932) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Rays are 32-20 (.615) after a loss this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .510.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .623 (1,266 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .339 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have 191 strikeouts in 592 PA’s (32%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Rays are batting .267 against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Rays hitters have an OBP of .333 (2,322 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .321.
The Rays are batting .263 against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have won only 8% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Marlins have won just just 13% of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays pitchers have walked 1,122 of 15,965 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 246 of 3,848 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays): Oblique, 7-Day IL
- Ryan Pepiot (Tampa Bay Rays): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Yandy Diaz (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Out
- Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Out
- Peyton Burdick (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dane Myers (Miami Marlins): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Sixto Sanchez (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ryan Weathers (Miami Marlins): Finger, 60-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jesus Luzardo (Miami Marlins): Back, 60-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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