- The Reds are -175 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Reds Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Marlins / Reds TV Channel: BSOH | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+150) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-185) on Sunday, July 14, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Marlins are 32-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 55-41 ATS.
Marlins vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers 1-9, 4.84 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Lodolo 8-3, 3.35 ERA
Marlins vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -125 | O 9 +100 | +150 |
| Reds | -1.5 +105 | U 9 -120 | -185 |
Marlins vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 57.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 25 away games (+19.15 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 games (+13.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+11.30 Units / 68% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 47 games (+18.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 28 games (+16.60 Units / 59% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 41 games (+11.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Will Benson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+11.25 Units / 74% ROI)
- Jake Fraley has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+10.45 Units / 45% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 77 games (+16.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 43 away games (+15.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 43 away games (+9.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 24 games (+0.40 Units / 1% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 78 games (+14.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 37 games at home (+11.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 80 games (+10.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 49 games at home (+9.45 Units / 16% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 41-54 against the Run Line (-28.86 Units / -22.84% ROI).
- 32-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -24 Units / -23.72% ROI
- 51-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.4 Units / 5.15% ROI
- 42-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.25 Units / -12.72% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 55-41 against the Run Line (+10.35 Units / 8.23% ROI).
- 47-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.25 Units / -1.95% ROI
- 43-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.75 Units / -11.07% ROI
- 49-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.4 Units / 1.33% ROI
Reds vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Reds vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Noelvi Marte (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Santiago Espinal (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Reds vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Rece Hinds (CIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Noelvi Marte (CIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Reds vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Lodolo (CIN) | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -140 |
| Trevor Rogers (MIA) | 5.5 +140 | 5.5 -185 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has a strike rate of just 49% (165/339) on sliders this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has allowed an OBP of .435 (177 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 166 total IP; League Avg: .322 — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 33% of Trevor Rogers’ breaking pitches (111/339) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 49% (165/339) of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Lodolo has a strike rate of just 59% (675/1,136) in two strike counts since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 166 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (155/359) with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 98th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (155/359) with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 97th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has allowed a slugging percentage of .549 (147 Total Bases / 268 ABs) at home since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: .403 — second Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Marlins are just 2-4 (.333) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Marlins are just 27-20 (.574) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Marlins are just 9-12 (.429) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .754.
The Marlins are just 10-22 (.312) after a home loss this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .544.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Reds are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 9-18 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 2-10 (.167) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 28-31 (.475) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .587.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .203 (1,777 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .586 (1,113 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .684.
Marlins hitters have chased 34% of pitches out of the zone this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .283 (3,481 PA’s) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .150 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Reds are batting just .112 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Reds hitters have 621 strikeouts in 2,428 PA’s (26%) against RHP this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Reds hitters are slugging just .175 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have won only 9% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Marlins have allowed 5.69 runs per game (279/49) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.35.
Marlins pitchers have won only 6% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 342 of 3,719 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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