- The Twins are -250 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Twins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Marlins / Twins TV Channel: BSNO | BSFL | MLBN | ESPN+
The Miami Marlins (+200) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-250) on Thursday, September 26, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Marlins are 58-100 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 72-86 ATS.
Marlins vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Valente Bellozo 3-4, 3.82 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: David Festa 2-6, 4.80 ERA
Marlins vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 +100 | O 8.5 -105 | +200 |
| Twins | -1.5 -120 | U 8.5 -115 | -250 |
Marlins vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 70.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jonah Bride has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 49 games (+47.00 Units / 96% ROI)
- Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 50 games (+14.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 48 games (+10.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 away games (+10.35 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+10.35 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+13.10 Units / 39% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+12.60 Units / 315% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+9.10 Units / 36% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.10 Units / 29% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 74 away games (+17.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 74 away games (+15.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 42 of their last 66 games (+14.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 31 away games (+7.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 63 games (+1.50 Units / 2% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 52 of their last 92 games (+13.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 44 of their last 72 games at home (+10.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+8.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+1.00 Units / 13% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 74-84 against the Run Line (-32.6 Units / -15.91% ROI).
- 58-100 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.2 Units / -11.68% ROI
- 83-67 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.8 Units / 5.63% ROI
- 67-83 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.45 Units / -13.52% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 72-86 against the Run Line (-18.1 Units / -9.08% ROI).
- 82-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.4 Units / -6.82% ROI
- 80-69 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.65 Units / 2.7% ROI
- 69-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.45 Units / -11.21% ROI
Twins vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Twins vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Willi Castro (MIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Twins vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Twins vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Festa (MIN) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -135 |
| Valente Bellozo (MIA) | 3.5 +110 | 3.5 -150 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Valente Bellozo has allowed an OPS of .989 (50 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (4 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .467 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .348 (16-for-46) against Valente Bellozo with two-strikes this month (4 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .156 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .348 (16-for-46) against Valente Bellozo with two-strikes this month (4 games) — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: .164 — second Percentile.
Valente Bellozo has allowed a slugging percentage of .609 (28 Total Bases / 46 ABs) with two-strikes this month (4 games) — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: .248 — second Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 29 ABs ending on a two-strike breaking pitch from David Festa. — Joe Kelly has the longest active streak at 57.
David Festa has walked 6 of 36 batters (17%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (4 games) — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 8% — fourth Percentile.
Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 29 ABs ending on a two-strike slider from David Festa. — A.J. Puk has the longest active streak at 42.
David Festa has allowed an OBP of .444 (36 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (4 games) — tied for 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .303 — seventh Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Marlins are just 23-19 (.548) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .750.
The Marlins are just 17-40 (.298) after a win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .492.
The Marlins are just 8-7 (.533) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .808.
The Marlins are just 18-20 (.474) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .643.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Twins are 139-2 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Twins are just 8-14 (.364) after a loss as underdogs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.
The Twins are 27-106 (.203) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Twins are 207-5 (.976) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .295 (4,633 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .283 (1,928 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Marlins hitters have 313 extra-base hits out of 1,007 total hits (just 31%) against LHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .365 against LHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have put just 30% of their swings in play in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Twins have scored 1.75 runs per game (277/158) in late innings this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 1.42.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .755 (3,822 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Twins are just 9-13 (.409) against the run line (-29.8% ROI) after a loss as underdogs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .572.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.
Marlins pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
The Marlins have allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.40.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 6.85 (109.0 IP) at home this month (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.74.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 861 of 11,920 batters (7%) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 189 of 2,861 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 294 of 4,302 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Minnesota Twins – No Injuries Reported
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
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