The Miami Marlins (+145) visit George M. Steinbrenner Field to take on the New York Yankees (-175) on Thursday, February 29, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 6:35pm EST in Tampa, FL.
This season, the Marlins are 0-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 2-1 ATS.
Marlins vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +145 |
| Yankees | -175 |
Marlins vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Thursday‘s matchup with 53.7% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Peyton Burdick has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.40 Units / 80% ROI)
- Jacob Amaya has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.50 Units / 125% ROI)
- Jonathan Davis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 4 of his last 6 away games (+2.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jacob Amaya has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ben Rortvedt has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Estevan Florial has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Under in 2 of his last 3 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Austin Wells has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+1.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Runs Over in 1 of his last 2 games at home (+1.10 Units / 55% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 70 away games (+13.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+9.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games at home (+9.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 81 games at home (+3.80 Units / 3% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 41 games at home (+3.68 Units / 8% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Marlins are 1-3 against the Run Line (-2.85 Units / -52.29% ROI).
- 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.3 Units / -80.37% ROI
- 1-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.15 Units / -49.43% ROI
- 3-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +2 Units / 44.94% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Yankees are 2-1 against the Run Line (+0.65 Units / 15.12% ROI).
- 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 25% ROI
- 2-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.85 Units / 26.15% ROI
- 1-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.3 Units / -38.81% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Weathers has limited playing time.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Clayton Beeter is making his MLB debut today.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Marlins are just 21-73 (.223) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Marlins are 93-13 (.877) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Marlins are 25-121 (.171) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Marlins were 7-64 (.099) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Yankees were just 11-41 (.212) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
The Yankees are 44-48 (.478) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Yankees are 108-28 (.794) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Yankees are 19-17 (.528) after a win as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins grounded into 158 double plays in the 2023 season — most in MLB.
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
The Yankees batted just .227 in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Yankees batted just .234 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Yankees batted just .313 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .348.
Yankees hitters had a groundball batting average of just .212 in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 20% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .215 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .215 against Yankees pitchers in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
In games when their opponents scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees won just just 14% of the time in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Yankees pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in 65% of their games in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Yankees vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lou Trivino (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Scott Effross (New York Yankees): Back, 60-Day IL
- Jasson Dominguez (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wandy Peralta (New York Yankees): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Ryan Weber (New York Yankees): Forearm, Out
- Jose Trevino (New York Yankees): Calf, Out
- Calvin Faucher (Miami Marlins): Biceps, Out
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Finger, Day-To-Day
- Jazz Chisholm (Miami Marlins): Toe, Out
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, Out
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, Out
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