The New York Mets (+105) visit Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium to take on the Miami Marlins (-125) on Saturday, March 2, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:10pm EST in Jupiter, FL.
This season, the Mets are 3-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 2-3 ATS.
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Mets | +105 |
| Marlins | -125 |
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Saturday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Starling Marte has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Tim Locastro has hit the Runs Over in 1 of his last 2 away games (+1.05 Units / 52% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 away games (+0.95 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Peyton Burdick has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.40 Units / 80% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jacob Amaya has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.50 Units / 125% ROI)
- Jonathan Davis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Jacob Amaya has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 152 games (+17.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 away games (+6.98 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 45 games (+2.10 Units / 4% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 64 games at home (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 59 games at home (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.64 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games at home (+4.19 Units / 5% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Mets are 5-0 against the Run Line (+6.32 Units / 109.91% ROI).
- 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 16.86% ROI
- 0-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.32 Units / -78.26% ROI
- 4-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +4 Units / 72.99% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Marlins are 2-3 against the Run Line (-1.8 Units / -26.32% ROI).
- 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.25 Units / -68% ROI
- 1-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.45 Units / -61.06% ROI
- 4-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +3 Units / 56.07% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sean Manaea allowed a slugging percentage of .750 (27 Total Bases / 36 ABs) on low fastballs in the 2023 season — 6th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .410 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 20% (32/160) against Sean Manaea on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 7th lowest among in NL; League Avg: 30% — ninth Percentile.
Sean Manaea elevated 48% of his pitches (188/391) when ahead in the count in the 2023 season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 30% — 97th Percentile.
74% of Sean Manaea’s fastball strikeouts were elevatedin the 2023 season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 51% — 98th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Eury Perez allowed a slugging percentage of .758 (47 Total Bases / 62 ABs) on inside fastballs in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .442 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 15% (19/129) against Eury Perez’s fastball in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 27% (63/233) against Eury Perez in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 52% (27/52) against Eury Perez on inside fastballs in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 0 Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets were just 6-39 (.133) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Mets were just 2-72 (.027) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Mets are 151-2 (.987) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Mets are just 11-109 (.092) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .129.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 21-73 (.223) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Marlins are 93-13 (.877) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Marlins are 25-121 (.171) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Marlins were 7-64 (.099) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Mets batted just .235 at home in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Mets hitters chased just 21% pitches when the pitcher was behind in the count in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 60% at home since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins grounded into 158 double plays in the 2023 season — most in MLB.
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers walked 140 of 1,412 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers walked 591 of 6,084 batters (10%) in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Mets pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The longest HR allowed by the Mets pitchers in the 2023 season traveled 455.0 feet — — tied for 3rd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 466.0
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 20% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Calvin Faucher (Miami Marlins): Biceps, Out
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Finger, Day-To-Day
- Jazz Chisholm (Miami Marlins): Toe, Out
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, Out
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, Out
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, Out
- Yacksel Rios (New York Mets): Shoulder, Out
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, Out
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