- The Mets are -135 favorites vs the Marlins
- Mets vs Marlins Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Mets / Marlins TV Channel: WPIX | BSFL
The New York Mets (-135) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+115) on Saturday, May 18, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Mets are 20-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 16-30 ATS.
Mets vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 2-2, 2.98 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett 0-0, 8.45 ERA
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +135 | O 7.5 -115 | -135 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -160 | U 7.5 -105 | +115 |
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 56.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 43 games (+12.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 43 games (+10.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+8.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+8.10 Units / 203% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Otto Lopez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+21.00 Units / 350% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+14.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.75 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 30 games (+12.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+9.75 Units / 67% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 away games (+8.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+6.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 away games (+5.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 20 away games (+5.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 19 away games (+2.40 Units / 12% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 24 games at home (+11.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.60 Units / 75% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games (+6.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 74% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+4.85 Units / 76% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 20-24 against the Run Line (-4.75 Units / -8.47% ROI).
- 20-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.4 Units / -9.18% ROI
- 21-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.2 Units / -4.73% ROI
- 21-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.85 Units / -4.03% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 16-30 against the Run Line (-20.46 Units / -34.32% ROI).
- 14-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.45 Units / -34.18% ROI
- 27-19 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.4 Units / 12.7% ROI
- 19-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.6 Units / -20.87% ROI
Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Braxton Garrett (MIA) | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
| Luis Severino (NYM) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Severino has an ERA of 7.24 (64.2 IP) on the road since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 4.36 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 16% (20/126) against Luis Severino this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Luis Severino has walked 13 of 103 right-handed batters (13%) this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 58% (39/67) against Luis Severino this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 95th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (574/1,198) with two-strikes since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (365/759) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (232/491) with runners in scoring position since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (898/1,917) against right-handed batters since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 98th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are just 4-89 (.043) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Mets are 168-4 (.977) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Mets are 96-24 (.800) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Mets are 154-17 (.901) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .868.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 38-34 (.528) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .588.
The Marlins are just 112-29 (.794) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Marlins are just 32-59 (.352) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Marlins are just 14-47 (.230) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting just .205 at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Mets hitters have an OPS of just .606 (885 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .708.
Mets hitters are slugging just .322 at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .394.
The Mets are batting just .235 against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .411 (847 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .503.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .205 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .296 (3,284 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 200 of 1,714 batters (12%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have walked 50 of 398 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 15 of 109 batters (14%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have walked 180 of 1,804 batters (10%) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 5% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 7% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 4.94 (408.0 IP) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.95.
Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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