- The Mets are -115 favorites vs the Nationals
- Mets vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Mets / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | SNY | ESPN+ | MLBN
The New York Mets (-115) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-105) on Monday, July 1, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Mets are 40-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 48-35 ATS.
Mets vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson 3-0, 3.67 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore 6-7, 3.58 ERA
Mets vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +145 | O 8 -105 | -115 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -175 | U 8 -115 | -105 |
Mets vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+25.20 Units / 315% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+14.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 41 games (+14.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.60 Units / 82% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games at home (+18.30 Units / 183% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+12.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+12.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+11.60 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+11.50 Units / 88% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 46 of their last 72 games (+15.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 32 away games (+11.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 35 away games (+9.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 33 games (+8.65 Units / 21% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 75 games (+13.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 75 games (+11.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games at home (+8.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+7.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 77 games (+5.55 Units / 7% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 39-42 against the Run Line (-5.55 Units / -5.23% ROI).
- 40-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.05 Units / -3.31% ROI
- 42-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.45 Units / 3.93% ROI
- 35-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.45 Units / -12.15% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 48-35 against the Run Line (+9.68 Units / 9.08% ROI).
- 39-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.7 Units / 9.99% ROI
- 37-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.9 Units / -9.8% ROI
- 42-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.03 Units / 1.12% ROI
Nationals vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Tyrone Taylor (NYM) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Nationals vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Iglesias (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ildemaro Vargas (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Nationals vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Nationals vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Peterson (NYM) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
| Mackenzie Gore (WAS) | 6.5 +130 | 6.5 -175 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Peterson has a strike rate of just 60% (1,955/3,240) against right-handed batters since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 51% (58/113) against David Peterson on breaking pitches since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: 36% — 0 Percentile.
David Peterson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 56% (583/1,041) since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 63% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (48/152) against David Peterson on sliders since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 33% (59/180) against MacKenzie Gore this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (77/238) against MacKenzie Gore this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has allowed a slugging percentage of .596 (28 Total Bases / 47 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .375 — seventh Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a first-pitch strike rate of just 56% (208/373) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets are just 27-10 (.730) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .892.
The Mets are 5-30 (.143) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Mets are just 32-6 (.842) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .944.
The Mets are 13-161 (.075) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals are 8-2 (.800) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Nationals are just 28-47 (.373) after a home win since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Nationals are just 77-121 (.389) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Nationals are just 52-199 (.207) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters are slugging 1.075 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .601.
The Mets are batting .276 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .341 (1,147 PA’s) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .566 (1,666 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .507.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 36% against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Nationals hitters have just 1,268 strikeouts in 6,430 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals are just 5-17 (.227) against the run line (-41.4% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .691 (6,430 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .722.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 907 of 9,211 batters (10%) since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have walked 316 of 3,127 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 72 of 731 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .349 (3,577 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Nationals vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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