- The Mets are -135 favorites vs the Pirates
- Mets vs Pirates Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Mets / Pirates TV Channel: SNY | SNPT
The New York Mets (-135) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+115) on Sunday, July 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Mets are 43-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 46-42 ATS.
Mets vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Sean Manaea 5-3, 3.71 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz 0-0, 26.99 ERA
Mets vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +115 | O 9 -115 | -135 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -140 | U 9 -105 | +115 |
Mets vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 56.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+25.20 Units / 315% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+14.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 41 games (+14.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.60 Units / 82% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+13.80 Units / 61% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+12.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.20 Units / 48% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 50 of their last 78 games (+17.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 38 away games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 28 games (+9.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games (+8.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 41 away games (+7.30 Units / 15% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 77 games (+16.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 44 games (+10.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games at home (+9.05 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 44 games (+7.95 Units / 15% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 42-45 against the Run Line (-5.55 Units / -4.92% ROI).
- 43-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.45 Units / -3.47% ROI
- 45-37 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.15 Units / 4.39% ROI
- 37-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.75 Units / -12.7% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 46-42 against the Run Line (+0.51 Units / 0.44% ROI).
- 42-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.05 Units / -5.89% ROI
- 40-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -8 Units / -8.2% ROI
- 44-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.93 Units / 0.97% ROI
Pirates vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| DJ Stewart (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Pirates vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jeff McNeil (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Francisco Alvarez (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Pirates vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Pirates vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Ortiz (PIT) | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -115 |
| Sean Manaea (NYM) | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sean Manaea has walked 6 of 35 right-handed batters (17%) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.
Sean Manaea has walked 18 of 144 batters (12%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Sean Manaea has allowed a slugging percentage of just .131 (8 Total Bases / 61 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .372 — 100th Percentile.
Sean Manaea has walked 7 of 48 batters (15%) — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Ortiz has walked 6 of 142 right-handed batters (4%) this season — 13th best among among 106 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 88th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .107 (3-for-28) against Luis Ortiz’s elevated fastball this season — 9th best among NL Relievers; League Avg: .199 — 90th Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has walked 42 of 335 batters (12%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 99 total IP; League Avg: 8% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (15/78) against Luis Ortiz on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 12th lowest among among 102 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 11th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Mets are just 29-11 (.725) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Mets are 8-26 (.235) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Mets are 5-34 (.128) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .055.
The Mets are just 33-6 (.846) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .945.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Pirates are just 133-30 (.816) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Pirates are just 43-58 (.426) after a home win since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Pirates are 57-13 (.814) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .737.
The Pirates are just 3-26 (.103) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters are slugging 1.050 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .572.
The Mets are batting .268 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .777 (975 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Mets are batting .249 with two outs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .233.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .174 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Pirates hitters have 415 strikeouts in 1,224 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .689 (6,552 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .722.
The Pirates are batting just .222 with two outs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 76 of 784 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets pitchers have walked 216 of 2,196 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% over the past seven days (7 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have walked 339 of 3,357 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The Pirates have won 38% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,446 of 15,854 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Pirates pitchers over the last 14 days — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The longest HR allowed by the Pirates pitchers in the 2023 season traveled 454.0 feet — — 2nd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 466.0
Pirates vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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