- The Mets are -105 favorites vs the Pirates
- Mets vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Mets / Pirates TV Channel: SNY | SNPT | MLBN
The New York Mets (-105) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-115) on Monday, July 8, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Mets are 44-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 47-42 ATS.
Mets vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Christian Scott 0-2, 4.37 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 9-5, 3.52 ERA
Mets vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +155 | O 8.5 -105 | -105 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -115 | -115 |
Mets vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s MLB game with 52.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+25.20 Units / 315% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+14.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 41 games (+14.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.60 Units / 82% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+13.80 Units / 61% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+12.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.20 Units / 48% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 50 of their last 79 games (+16.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 39 away games (+10.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 29 games (+10.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+7.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 40 games (+6.90 Units / 14% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 78 games (+17.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 27 games (+10.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 45 games (+10.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 28 games at home (+8.05 Units / 24% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 42-46 against the Run Line (-6.55 Units / -5.75% ROI).
- 44-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.45 Units / -2.43% ROI
- 45-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.05 Units / 3.19% ROI
- 38-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.75 Units / -11.49% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 47-42 against the Run Line (+1.51 Units / 1.29% ROI).
- 42-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.05 Units / -6.8% ROI
- 40-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.1 Units / -9.22% ROI
- 45-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.93 Units / 1.98% ROI
Pirates vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Pirates vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Pirates vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Pirates vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Scott (NYM) | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -115 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Christian Scott has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last three games dating back to May 24th — the longest active streak is 4.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .286 (40-for-140) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .225 — eighth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .220 (46-for-209) against Mitch Keller with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .162 — fourth Percentile.
Mitch Keller has struck out just 15% (34/221) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — sixth Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .342 (219 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .287 — fifth Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Mets are 6-34 (.150) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Mets are just 29-11 (.725) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Mets are just 25-11 (.694) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Mets are 7-28 (.200) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .104.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Pirates are just 3-26 (.103) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Pirates are just 133-30 (.816) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .867.
The Pirates are just 72-106 (.404) after a win since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
The Pirates are 57-13 (.814) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .737.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting .268 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Mets hitters are slugging 1.023 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .563.
Mets hitters are slugging .448 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
The Mets are 6-34 (.150) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .056.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 57 strikeouts in 147 PA’s (39%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .175 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .301 (4,774 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates hitters have 1,199 strikeouts in 4,774 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 77 of 793 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have walked 54 of 480 batters (11%) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 217 of 2,205 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,451 of 15,893 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates have won 38% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 51% of their games on the road since the 2022 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 132 times since the 2022 season — tied for 4th fewest in MLB.
Pirates vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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