- The Rays are -135 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets vs Rays Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Mets / Rays TV Channel: SNY | BSUN
The New York Mets (+120) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-145) on Friday, May 3, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:50pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.
This season, the Mets are 16-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 11-21 ATS.
Mets vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Jose Quintana 1-2, 3.44 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Aaron Civale 2-2, 5.07 ERA
Mets vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -175 | O 8 -110 | +120 |
| Rays | -1.5 +145 | U 8 -110 | -145 |
Mets vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Friday‘s MLB game with 53.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Tomas Nido has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+11.00 Units / 275% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 30 games (+9.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games (+8.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Omar Narvaez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.35 Units / 73% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+14.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+14.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+12.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 24 games (+11.75 Units / 48% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games at home (+11.50 Units / 144% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 108 games (+16.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 away games (+6.98 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 45 games (+2.10 Units / 4% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 60 games at home (+17.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 44 games (+13.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 58 games (+10.19 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 57 games (+7.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+5.26 Units / 16% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 16-15 against the Run Line (+2.45 Units / 6.49% ROI).
- 16-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.85 Units / 2.49% ROI
- 14-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.6 Units / -8.11% ROI
- 15-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.35 Units / -1.1% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 11-21 against the Run Line (-10.55 Units / -27.05% ROI).
- 14-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.55 Units / -25% ROI
- 18-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.65 Units / 7.57% ROI
- 14-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.95 Units / -16.81% ROI
Rays vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Rays vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Rays vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Isaac Paredes (TB) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Amed Rosario (TB) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Rays vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana has a strikeout rate of just 9% (5 SO in 54 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 49% (96/197) when ahead in the count this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — second Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strikeout rate of just 32% (23 SO in 71 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 43% — sixth Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 56% (93/166) in two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Aaron Civale since the 2022 season is 385.2 feet — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 141 total IP; League Avg: 398.4
Aaron Civale has walked 2 of 54 batters (4%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 90th Percentile.
Aaron Civale has allowed a slugging percentage of .538 (28 Total Bases / 52 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .366 — seventh Percentile.
Aaron Civale has thrown elevated pitches 51% of the time (71/138) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Mets are 165-2 (.988) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Mets are just 3-83 (.035) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Mets are 153-15 (.911) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Mets are 161-12 (.931) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .906.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Rays are just 12-31 (.279) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Rays are just 5-17 (.227) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .423.
The Rays are 18-7 (.720) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 85-31 (.733) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .636.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have put 43% of their swings in play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Mets are batting just .240 against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Mets hitters have just 47 strikeouts in 278 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets are batting .268 with two outs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .228.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays scored first in 64% of their games in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters have 32 strikeouts in 80 PA’s (40%) against LHP over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Rays hitters have put just 17% of their swings in play in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Rays hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 136 of 1,194 batters (11%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have walked 175 of 1,693 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 30% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays pitchers have walked 925 of 13,154 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taylor Walls (Tampa Bay Rays): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Jonny DeLuca (Tampa Bay Rays): Hand, 10-Day IL
- Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane Baz (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Taj Bradley (Tampa Bay Rays): Pectoral, 15-Day IL
- Josh Lowe (Tampa Bay Rays): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays): Quadriceps, Day-To-Day
- Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, Out
- Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Suspension
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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