The Washington Nationals (+195) visit CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches to take on the Houston Astros (-225) on Friday, March 22, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in West Palm Beach, FL.
This season, the Nationals are 12-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 9-9 ATS.
Nationals vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +195 |
| Astros | -225 |
Nationals vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s matchup with 61.1% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Garcia has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 6 away games (+1.30 Units / 16% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jon Singleton has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 144 games (+23.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 81 away games (+14.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.08 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 away games (+7.95 Units / 23% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+15.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 51 of their last 87 games at home (+8.68 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games at home (+7.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.21 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 100 games (+4.60 Units / 4% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Nationals are 11-7 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 10.03% ROI).
- 12-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 53.72% ROI
- 10-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 11.29% ROI
- 7-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / -20.85% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Astros are 9-9 against the Run Line (+0 Units / -3.49% ROI).
- 9-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / -13.04% ROI
- 8-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / -6.86% ROI
- 8-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / -4.42% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Framber Valdez located 47% of his pitches inside (361/767) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez had third base stolen on him 8 times in the 2023 season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 55% (298/539) against Framber Valdez in the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Framber Valdez located 41% of his pitches inside (1,210/2,952) in the 2023 season — highest among in AL; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Nationals are just 39-64 (.379) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Nationals are just 21-36 (.368) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Nationals are just 45-79 (.363) after a win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Nationals are just 120-170 (.414) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Astros were 12-7 (.632) after a loss as underdogs in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Astros are 90-23 (.796) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Astros are 79-47 (.627) after a loss since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Astros are 38-20 (.655) after a road loss since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters struck out just 1,149 times in 6,085 PA’s (19%) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters put 39% of their swings in play on pitches 95 mph or greater in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters struck out just 327 times in 1,801 PA’s (18%) against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Astros have won 90% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
The Astros batted .180 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Astros hitters had an OPS of .783 (1,985 PA’s) in innings 7-9 in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Nationals have won just 23% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 20% in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers had an ERA of 3.62 (710.1 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Astros pitchers have won 41% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 35% of their games since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Astros vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Back, Out
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, Out
- J.P. France (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Lower Leg, Out
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, Out
- Joey Meneses (Washington Nationals): Knee, Out
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Dominic Smith (Washington Nationals): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
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