- The Nationals are -105 favorites vs the Marlins
- Nationals vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Nationals / Marlins TV Channel: MASN | BSFL
The Washington Nationals (-105) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-115) on Tuesday, September 3, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Nationals are 61-76 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 64-73 ATS.
Nationals vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin 4-12, 5.53 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Max Meyer 3-4, 5.48 ERA
Nationals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | -1.5 +155 | O 8.5 -105 | -105 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -115 | -115 |
Nationals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Juan Yepez has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 45 games (+10.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- Joey Gallo has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+10.05 Units / 52% ROI)
- Jacob Young has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 33 games (+9.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 12 away games (+9.30 Units / 77% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Home Runs Over in 17 of his last 50 games (+35.40 Units / 71% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 46 games (+20.30 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 36 games (+9.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- Connor Norby has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 57% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.95 Units / 38% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 74 of their last 129 games (+11.80 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 43 away games (+9.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 65 away games (+7.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 away games (+6.50 Units / 42% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 69 games at home (+29.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 45 games (+20.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 42 games (+9.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games at home (+9.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 42 games (+8.45 Units / 18% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 77-60 against the Run Line (+7.88 Units / 4.4% ROI).
- 61-76 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.95 Units / 2.04% ROI
- 65-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -7 Units / -4.68% ROI
- 66-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.37 Units / -4.19% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 64-73 against the Run Line (-29.46 Units / -16.41% ROI).
- 51-86 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.1 Units / -11.94% ROI
- 75-57 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.85 Units / 8.49% ROI
- 57-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.4 Units / -16.25% ROI
Marlins vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Joey Gallo (WAS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Andrรฉs Chaparro (WAS) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Marlins vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Derek Hill (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jose Tena (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Dylan Crews (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jonah Bride (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Marlins vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Andrรฉs Chaparro (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Marlins vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin (WAS) | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
| Max Meyer (MIA) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -115 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OPS of .826 (782 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .682 — fourth Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has a strikeout rate of just 19% (100 SO in 531 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .295 (209-for-709) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — fourth Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OPS of .841 (804 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .668 — fourth Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Meyer has allowed at least one HR in each of his last three games dating back to August 17th — Bobby Miller has the longest active streak at 9.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are 10-2 (.833) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .580.
The Nationals are just 40-59 (.404) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.
The Nationals are just 35-60 (.368) after a road win since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Nationals are just 56-226 (.199) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 6-6 (.500) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Marlins are just 19-18 (.514) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .751.
The Marlins are just 29-13 (.690) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Marlins are just 67-47 (.588) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .700.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .955 (2,064 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.088.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .356 against LHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Nationals hitters have just 641 strikeouts in 3,385 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Nationals have scored first in just 40% of their road games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins have allowed 5.83 runs per game (402/69) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.12 (642.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 480 of 5,296 batters (9%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
- Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
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