- The Nationals are -135 favorites vs the Marlins
- Nationals vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Nationals / Marlins TV Channel: MASN | BSFL
The Washington Nationals (-145) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+120) on Wednesday, September 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Nationals are 62-76 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 64-74 ATS.
Nationals vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore 8-11, 4.42 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Valente Bellozo 2-2, 4.32 ERA
Nationals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | -1.5 +115 | O 8.5 -110 | -145 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -135 | U 8.5 -110 | +120 |
Nationals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 61.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 away games (+17.30 Units / 133% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- Joey Gallo has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+11.15 Units / 55% ROI)
- Joey Gallo has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+11.05 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jacob Young has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 34 games (+10.55 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Home Runs Over in 16 of his last 46 games (+33.80 Units / 73% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 47 games (+19.15 Units / 35% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 47 games (+19.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 46 games (+18.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 43 games (+17.05 Units / 26% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 75 of their last 130 games (+12.80 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 44 away games (+10.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 66 away games (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 away games (+7.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 130 games (+7.20 Units / 5% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 70 games at home (+29.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 46 games (+19.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 43 games (+8.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+7.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 43 games (+7.45 Units / 15% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 78-60 against the Run Line (+8.88 Units / 4.91% ROI).
- 62-76 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.95 Units / 2.7% ROI
- 65-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -7 Units / -4.64% ROI
- 66-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.37 Units / -4.16% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 64-74 against the Run Line (-30.46 Units / -16.87% ROI).
- 51-87 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.2 Units / -12.61% ROI
- 75-57 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.85 Units / 8.43% ROI
- 57-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.4 Units / -16.14% ROI
Marlins vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Gallo (WAS) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Andrรฉs Chaparro (WAS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jose Tena (WAS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Marlins vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Tena (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Dylan Crews (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Andrรฉs Chaparro (WAS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Marlins vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Andrรฉs Chaparro (WAS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Joey Gallo (WAS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jose Tena (WAS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Marlins vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Valente Bellozo (MIA) | 3.5 -175 | 3.5 +135 |
| Mackenzie Gore (WAS) | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +100 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
MacKenzie Gore has an average spin rate of 2011.7 RPM on sliders since last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 2424.1 — fifth Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has averaged 89.6 MPH on sliders since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 84.6 — 97th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has averaged 83.1 MPH on curveballs since last season — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 79.7 — 89th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Valente Bellozo has allowed at least one HR in each of his last three games dating back to August 18th — Bobby Miller has the longest active streak at 9.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are 11-2 (.846) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .580.
The Nationals are just 40-59 (.404) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.
The Nationals are just 56-226 (.199) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.
The Nationals are just 35-60 (.368) after a road win since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .486.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 29-13 (.690) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Marlins are just 19-18 (.514) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .750.
The Marlins are just 6-6 (.500) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Marlins are just 14-18 (.438) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .639.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals are 11-2 (.846) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .580.
The Nationals are 11-2 (52.0% ROI) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 58%.
The Nationals are 9-4 (.692) against the run line (66.2% ROI) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .439.
The Nationals have scored first in just 41% of their road games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 36% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 37% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Marlins are just 29-13 (.690) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Marlins have won just 52% of games in which they have scored first at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 73%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 54% of their games since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 59% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 50% of their games on the road since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 59% of their games this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Marlins have won just 22% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 20% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
- Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
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