- The Red Sox are -155 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Nationals / Red Sox TV Channel: MASN | NESN
The Washington Nationals (+135) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-160) on Saturday, May 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Nationals are 19-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 19-19 ATS.
Nationals vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jake Irvin 2-3, 3.73 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Cooper Criswell 2-1, 1.77 ERA
Nationals vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -150 | O 8.5 -110 | +135 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +125 | U 8.5 -110 | -160 |
Nationals vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 53.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Nationals vs Red Sox and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- CJ Abrams has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 17 away games (+22.10 Units / 130% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 33 games (+13.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 33 games (+13.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.65 Units / 38% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 33 games (+10.90 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 18 games (+9.50 Units / 53% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.55 Units / 52% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 26 games (+8.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.20 Units / 46% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 87 games (+22.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.08 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 away games (+7.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 54 away games (+4.00 Units / 6% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.49 Units / 34% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 24-13 against the Run Line (+9.58 Units / 20.12% ROI).
- 19-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.55 Units / 30.76% ROI
- 16-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.7 Units / -11.68% ROI
- 19-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.18 Units / 2.87% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 19-19 against the Run Line (-4.2 Units / -7.76% ROI).
- 19-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -2.25% ROI
- 14-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.7 Units / -23.49% ROI
- 22-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.55 Units / 15.47% ROI
Red Sox vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1100 |
Red Sox vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jacob Young (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Dominic Smith (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Red Sox vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Red Sox vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cooper Criswell (BOS) | 3.5 +110 | 3.5 -145 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Irvin has walked 1 of 75 right-handed batters (1%) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 97th Percentile.
Jake Irvin’s K:BB ratio is 16.0 (16/1) against right-handed batters this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.4 — 98th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has a strikeout rate of just 11% (7 SO in 63 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 35% (22/62) against Jake Irvin this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 16th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 17% (27/160) against Cooper Criswell since last season — tied for 3rd lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 27% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (74/408) against Cooper Criswell since last season — lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.
Cooper Criswell has a strikeout rate of just 34% (43 SO in 126 PAs) with two-strikes since last season — lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Cooper Criswell has struck out just 15% (17/110) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — 4th lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 25% — fifth Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Nationals are just 23-42 (.354) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 15-25 (.375) after a home win since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Nationals are just 53-90 (.371) after a win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.
The Nationals are just 72-44 (.621) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .733.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Red Sox are just 1-89 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Red Sox are just 20-86 (.189) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Red Sox are just 14-22 (.389) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 19-25 (.432) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals are batting just .094 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
Nationals hitters have just 832 strikeouts in 4,266 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .120 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Nationals are just 3-12 (.200) against the run line (-49.2% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .446.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 118 strikeouts in 398 PA’s (30%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Red Sox are batting .272 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of 1.312 (255 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.047.
The Red Sox are batting .180 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in late innings since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 95 of 1,398 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 2.21 (183.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.05.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 2.81 (339.1 IP) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 17 of 340 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
Bet now on Nationals vs Red Sox and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
