- The Orioles are -210 favorites vs the Nationals
- Orioles vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Orioles / Nationals TV Channel: MAS2 | MASN
The Baltimore Orioles (-225) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+180) on Tuesday, May 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Orioles are 23-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 21-13 ATS.
Orioles vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes 3-1, 2.62 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams 3-0, 2.35 ERA
Orioles vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 -130 | O 8.5 -105 | -225 |
| Nationals | +1.5 +105 | U 8.5 -115 | +180 |
Orioles vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 64.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 28 games (+20.10 Units / 72% ROI)
- Adley Rutschman has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+16.35 Units / 95% ROI)
- Adley Rutschman has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+12.75 Units / 85% ROI)
- Adley Rutschman has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 33 games (+10.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- Adley Rutschman has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+9.30 Units / 58% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Senzel has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 12 games (+25.50 Units / 212% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 30 games (+17.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+16.30 Units / 48% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Runs Under in his last 15 games at home (+15.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+12.45 Units / 33% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 130 games (+25.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 62 away games (+18.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 41 away games (+16.97 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 41 away games (+14.56 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 87 games (+22.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+6.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.39 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.50 Units / 21% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 20-14 against the Run Line (+9.65 Units / 24.03% ROI).
- 23-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.1 Units / 12.62% ROI
- 17-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.8 Units / 4.82% ROI
- 14-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.7 Units / -12.53% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 21-13 against the Run Line (+6.43 Units / 14.48% ROI).
- 17-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.9 Units / 25.76% ROI
- 15-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.6 Units / -9.7% ROI
- 17-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.38 Units / 1.01% ROI
Nationals vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jordan Westburg (BAL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Nationals vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cedric Mullins (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Heston Kjerstad (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Nationals vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -150 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
Nationals vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes (BAL) | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
| Trevor Williams (WAS) | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -135 |
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 61% of the time (180/297) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 69% of the time (24/35) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 66% of the time (23/35) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 65% of the time (348/533) since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 39% of Trevor Williams’ non-fastballs (802/2,056) since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 48% — second Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 36% of Trevor Williams’ breaking pitches (406/1,115) since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Williams has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 51% (573/1,115) of the time since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Williams has a strike rate of just 52% (470/911) on sliders since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Orioles are 18-6 (.750) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 55-41 (.573) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Orioles are 45-55 (.450) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Orioles are 34-58 (.370) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .268.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Nationals are just 52-89 (.369) after a win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.
The Nationals are just 44-181 (.196) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
The Nationals are just 66-111 (.373) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .525.
The Nationals are just 43-82 (.344) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters are slugging .495 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .387.
The Orioles are 44-20 (.688) against the run line (32.1% ROI) after a road win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Orioles hitters have grounded into 9 double plays in 224 opportunities (4%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Orioles are 67-37 (.644) against the run line (21.1% ROI) after a road win since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .502.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals are batting just .094 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .156.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Nationals are just 3-12 (.200) against the run line (-49.2% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .122 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 20% against Orioles pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Orioles have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 558 of 7,338 batters (8%) since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 217 of 3,203 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in late innings since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Nationals vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Terrin Vavra (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Cionel Perez (Baltimore Orioles): Oblique, 15-Day IL
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