- Orioles / Phillies TV Channel: NSP+ | MLBN
The Baltimore Orioles (+155) visit BayCare Ballpark to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-190) on Tuesday, March 5, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Clearwater, FL.
This season, the Orioles are 7-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 5-3 ATS.
Orioles vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +155 |
| Phillies | -190 |
Orioles vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 56.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 73% ROI)
- Adley Rutschman has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 games (+4.70 Units / 100% ROI)
- Heston Kjerstad has hit the Singles Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 64% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 away games (+3.75 Units / 61% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+3.70 Units / 185% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Johan Rojas has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+3.05 Units / 79% ROI)
- Garrett Stubbs has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 100 of their last 162 games (+33.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 57 of their last 82 away games (+26.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 49 of their last 82 away games (+10.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.65 Units / 32% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games at home (+8.78 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Orioles are 5-2 against the Run Line (+3.7 Units / 45.85% ROI).
- 7-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.45 Units / 79.68% ROI
- 3-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.37 Units / -17.86% ROI
- 4-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.7 Units / 9.06% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Phillies are 5-3 against the Run Line (+1.09 Units / 9.74% ROI).
- 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.69 Units / 7.09% ROI
- 3-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.2 Units / -25.64% ROI
- 5-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.78 Units / 19.69% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Albert Suarez has limited playing time.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler located 44% of his pitches inside (277/624) when ahead in the count in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler located 43% of his pitches inside (342/789) on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 97th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler located 43% of his pitches inside (910/2,131) in non-two strike counts in the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 97th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler allowed an OBP of just .208 (197 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — 100th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Orioles are 54-41 (.568) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Orioles were 72-12 (.857) when they scored 5 or more runs in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .780.
The Orioles are 55-57 (.491) after a win as underdogs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Orioles were 22-26 (.458) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Phillies are 27-115 (.190) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Phillies were 69-7 (.908) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .859.
The Phillies were 7-64 (.099) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Phillies are 47-33 (.588) after a road win since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles were 36-16 (.692) against the run line (28.5% ROI) after a road win in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Orioles are 193-126 (.601) against the run line (12.5% ROI) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Orioles won 64% of their road games in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Orioles hitters drew 169 walks in 1,701 PA’s (10%) against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies batted .166 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Phillies hitters had an OPS of .790 (3,042 PA’s) at home in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .746.
Phillies hitters slugged .454 against LHP in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Phillies batted .252 with two outs in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
The Orioles won 53% of road games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Orioles won 49% of games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Orioles pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles pitchers had allowed 177 home runs in the 2023 season — tied for 4th fewest in MLB.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.4 MPH (4,019 batted balls) in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Phillies pitchers won 40% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies pitchers induced opposing hitters to ground into just 95 double plays in 1,088 opportunities (9%) in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brandon Marsh (Philadelphia Phillies): Knee, Out
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Alec Bohm (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, Day-To-Day
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, Day-To-Day
- Gunnar Henderson (Baltimore Orioles): Oblique, Out
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Terrin Vavra (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Out
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Out
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Out
- Shintaro Fujinami (Baltimore Orioles): Personal, Out
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