- The Orioles are -135 favorites vs the Pirates
- Orioles vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Orioles / Pirates TV Channel: MAS2 | SNPT
The Baltimore Orioles (-135) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+115) on Saturday, April 6, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Orioles are 5-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 6-2 ATS.
Orioles vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Tyler Wells 0-1, 4.50 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 0-0, 13.51 ERA
Orioles vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 +125 | O 8.5 +100 | -135 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -150 | U 8.5 -120 | +115 |
Orioles vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 56.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jorge Mateo has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+11.30 Units / 141% ROI)
- Tony Kemp has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+10.10 Units / 59% ROI)
- Tony Kemp has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+10.05 Units / 58% ROI)
- Tony Kemp has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- Grayson Rodriguez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+9.40 Units / 70% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Mitch Keller has hit the Earned Runs Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+7.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+7.35 Units / 65% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.10 Units / 41% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+6.90 Units / 99% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+6.85 Units / 23% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 95 of their last 153 games (+33.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 53 of their last 76 away games (+25.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 45 of their last 76 away games (+8.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.65 Units / 32% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 4-3 against the Run Line (+1.85 Units / 26.43% ROI).
- 5-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 18.35% ROI
- 3-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.35 Units / -4.46% ROI
- 3-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.3 Units / -3.97% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 6-2 against the Run Line (+4.95 Units / 45.83% ROI).
- 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.05 Units / 45% ROI
- 6-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.85 Units / 44.25% ROI
- 2-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.65 Units / -52.25% ROI
Pirates vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mountcastle | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Cruz | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Westburg | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Reynolds | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Taylor | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
Pirates vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wells | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +105 |
| Falter | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -125 |
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .185 (17-for-92) against Tyler Wells on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: .343 — 100th Percentile.
Tyler Wells allowed a BABIP of .200 in the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .295 — 100th Percentile.
Tyler Wells allowed a BABIP of .170 against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .297 — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 16% (43/262) against Tyler Wells since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter located 44% of his pitches inside (572/1,296) in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has allowed a slugging percentage of .600 (84 Total Bases / 140 ABs) on breaking pitches since last season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: .392 — first Percentile.
Bailey Falter has allowed a slugging percentage of .706 (12 Total Bases / 17 ABs) this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: .398 — third Percentile.
Bailey Falter allowed a slugging percentage of .604 (81 Total Bases / 134 ABs) on breaking pitches in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .393 — 0 Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Orioles were 15-6 (.714) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 141-8 (.946) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .870.
The Orioles are 54-41 (.568) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Orioles are 27-21 (.562) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .384.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Pirates were 34-8 (.810) when they had 10 or more hits in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Pirates are just 40-71 (.360) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Pirates are 7-4 (.636) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Pirates are just 16-27 (.372) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .453.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have 22 extra-base hits out of 40 total hits (55%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of .966 (40 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .700.
Orioles hitters are slugging .470 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .224.
Orioles hitters are slugging .641 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .379.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 371 strikeouts in 1,103 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of .422 (138 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .334.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .500 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .577.
Pirates hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 17% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 52% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Orioles won 53% of road games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 201 of 2,958 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 13 of 250 batters (5%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,206 of 12,814 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Pirates pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 10 double plays in 59 opportunities (17%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Pirates pitchers are throwing just 3.57 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Pirates vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Terrin Vavra (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Cionel Perez (Baltimore Orioles): Oblique, 15-Day IL
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