The Baltimore Orioles (+120) visit JetBlue Park at Fenway South to take on the Boston Red Sox (-145) on Thursday, March 21, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in Fort Myers, FL.
This season, the Orioles are 1-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 13-8 ATS.
Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +120 |
| Red Sox | -145 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Thursday‘s matchup with 52.9% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 73% ROI)
- Heston Kjerstad has hit the Singles Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 64% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 away games (+3.75 Units / 61% ROI)
- Ryan McKenna has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jorge Mateo has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 away games (+2.95 Units / 98% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 games at home (+4.90 Units / 102% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+3.80 Units / 190% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.95 Units / 98% ROI)
- Luis Urias has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.70 Units / 90% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the RBIs Over in his last game (+2.10 Units / 210% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 100 of their last 162 games (+33.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 57 of their last 82 away games (+26.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 49 of their last 82 away games (+10.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.65 Units / 32% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.49 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in their last 1 games (+1.40 Units / 140% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in their last 1 games (+1.00 Units / 71% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Orioles are 1-0 against the Run Line (+1.14 Units / 114% ROI).
- 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 61.73% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Red Sox are 13-8 against the Run Line (+5.22 Units / 21.43% ROI).
- 10-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.84 Units / -2.92% ROI
- 6-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.43 Units / -40.91% ROI
- 14-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.37 Units / 31.84% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Albert Suarez has limited playing time.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cooper Criswell has limited playing time.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles were 15-6 (.714) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 135-8 (.944) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .871.
The Orioles are 54-41 (.568) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Orioles were 17-10 (.630) after a road loss in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .464.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox are just 3-138 (.021) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Red Sox were just 1-72 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Red Sox were just 17-25 (.405) after a home loss in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .508.
The Red Sox were just 35-47 (.427) after a loss in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .486.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles were 36-16 (.692) against the run line (28.5% ROI) after a road win in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Orioles are 193-126 (.601) against the run line (12.5% ROI) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
Orioles hitters drew 169 walks in 1,701 PA’s (10%) against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Orioles won 64% of their road games in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Red Sox batted .182 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Red Sox hitters slugged .266 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
10% of Red Sox’s hitters plate appearances lasted only one pitch (601/6,174 PA’s) in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
The Orioles won 53% of road games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Orioles pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles pitchers won 42% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .198 against Orioles pitchers with the shift in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .265 against Red Sox pitchers with the shift in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Red Sox have won 43% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 208 times since the 2021 season — tied for 4th most in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers threw over to first base 120 times in the 2023 season — 2nd fewest in MLB.
Red Sox vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- David Hamilton (Boston Red Sox): Thumb, Out
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, Out
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
- Dinelson Lamet (Boston Red Sox): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Connor Wong (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Jarren Duran (Boston Red Sox): Toe, Out
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Lat, Out
- Gunnar Henderson (Baltimore Orioles): Oblique, Out
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Terrin Vavra (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Out
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Out
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Out
- Shintaro Fujinami (Baltimore Orioles): Personal, Out
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