- The Red Sox are -140 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Orioles / Red Sox TV Channel: MASN | NESN
The Baltimore Orioles (+120) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-140) on Wednesday, September 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Orioles are 83-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 66-79 ATS.
Orioles vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer 7-9, 4.24 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 5-10, 4.37 ERA
Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -185 | O 9.5 -120 | +120 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +150 | U 9.5 +100 | -140 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Anthony Santander has hit the Home Runs Over in 15 of his last 50 games (+20.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- Colton Cowser has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 49 games (+16.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Colton Cowser has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+15.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Adley Rutschman has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 41 games (+11.80 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 48 games (+24.80 Units / 52% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 35 games (+16.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Under in 27 of his last 33 games (+16.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+12.65 Units / 60% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+12.00 Units / 53% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 75 of their last 137 games (+18.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 71 games (+14.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 55 of their last 99 games (+13.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 52 away games (+6.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 51 away games (+5.90 Units / 9% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 47 games at home (+6.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.80 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+3.20 Units / 36% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 79-67 against the Run Line (+18.35 Units / 10.47% ROI).
- 83-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.35 Units / -2.03% ROI
- 78-56 when betting on the total runs Over for +17.1 Units / 10.75% ROI
- 56-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -29.8 Units / -18.62% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 66-79 against the Run Line (-22.3 Units / -11.66% ROI).
- 73-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.15 Units / -4.54% ROI
- 74-64 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.95 Units / 2.49% ROI
- 64-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.75 Units / -10.59% ROI
Red Sox vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Red Sox vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta (BOS) | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -105 |
| Dean Kremer (BAL) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -140 |
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (27/156) against Dean Kremer this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Dean Kremer has allowed a slugging percentage of just .257 (43 Total Bases / 167 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: .390 — 96th Percentile.
Dean Kremer has allowed a slugging percentage of just .215 (23 Total Bases / 107 ABs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: .406 — 99th Percentile.
Dean Kremer has allowed an OPS of just .517 (189 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: .688 — 97th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta allowed a batting average of .364 vs right-handed batters (second worst)– second Percentile and just .167 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (tied for seventh best among qualified SPs)– 90th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .775 (293 Total Bases / 378 ABs) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: .573 — 0 Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .800 (148 Total Bases / 185 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: .562 — 0 Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of just .179 (661 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 98th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles are 60-48 (.556) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Orioles are 93-59 (.612) on the road since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .479.
The Orioles are 33-27 (.550) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Orioles are 92-30 (.754) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .638.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox are just 5-200 (.024) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Red Sox are just 3-134 (.022) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Red Sox are just 19-186 (.093) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .133.
The Red Sox are just 15-59 (.203) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Orioles hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Orioles hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Orioles hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .392 in hitter’s counts this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Red Sox hitters have 471 strikeouts in 1,669 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Red Sox are batting .258 with two outs this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .635 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .562.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .211 against Orioles pitchers with the shift since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .213 against Orioles pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Orioles pitchers won 41% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Orioles have won 42% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 406 of 5,515 batters (7%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% with runners in scoring position since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Boston Red Sox – No Injuries Reported
- Baltimore Orioles – No Injuries Reported
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