- The Orioles are -105 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Orioles vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Orioles / Red Sox TV Channel: MASN | NESN
The Baltimore Orioles (-105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-115) on Monday, September 9, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Orioles are 82-62 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 65-78 ATS.
Orioles vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Cade Povich 2-7, 5.80 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 12-7, 4.79 ERA
Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 +155 | O 9.5 -115 | -105 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -190 | U 9.5 -105 | -115 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Holliday has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 away games (+20.50 Units / 128% ROI)
- Colton Cowser has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 34 of his last 49 games (+18.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- Colton Cowser has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 47 games (+17.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 24 away games (+15.45 Units / 51% ROI)
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 39 games (+12.00 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 46 games (+26.80 Units / 58% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 19 games at home (+15.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 34 games (+15.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.95 Units / 69% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.40 Units / 65% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 74 of their last 135 games (+19.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 69 games (+15.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 97 games (+13.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 50 away games (+6.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 49 away games (+5.65 Units / 8% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games (+10.15 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+6.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+5.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.75 Units / 25% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 78-66 against the Run Line (+19.25 Units / 11.22% ROI).
- 82-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.55 Units / -2.15% ROI
- 77-55 when betting on the total runs Over for +17.1 Units / 10.9% ROI
- 55-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -29.7 Units / -18.83% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 65-78 against the Run Line (-22.95 Units / -12.12% ROI).
- 72-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.75 Units / -4.38% ROI
- 73-63 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.95 Units / 2.52% ROI
- 63-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.65 Units / -10.68% ROI
Red Sox vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Danny Jansen (BOS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Rob Refsnyder (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Red Sox vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello (BOS) | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -110 |
| Cade Povich (BAL) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cade Povich has not walked any of the 27 batters that he has faced over the past seven days (1 games) — tied for best among AL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Cade Povich has a strikeout rate of 37% (10 SO in 27 PAs) over the past seven days (1 games) — tied for 7th best among AL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 24% — 88th Percentile.
Cade Povich has allowed an OPS of .837 (272 PA’s) this season — 11th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: .710 — sixth Percentile.
Cade Povich has a strike rate of 71% (70/98) over the past seven days (1 games) — 2nd highest among AL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 77% (13/17) against Brayan Bello in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (84/480) against Brayan Bello since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 58% (245/423) against Brayan Bello since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 18% (102/557) against Brayan Bello since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 186 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles are 33-27 (.550) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Orioles are 60-47 (.561) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Orioles are 19-10 (.655) after a road loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Orioles are 35-47 (.427) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox are just 36-38 (.486) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .581.
The Red Sox are just 3-133 (.022) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Red Sox are just 19-185 (.093) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .133.
The Red Sox are just 56-50 (.528) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .588.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Orioles are 152-113 (.574) against the run line (10.1% ROI) after a win since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .489.
Orioles hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Orioles hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .391 in hitter’s counts this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.
The Red Sox are batting .269 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Red Sox hitters have 460 strikeouts in 1,634 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .437 against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
The Orioles have won 42% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .212 against Orioles pitchers with the shift since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Orioles pitchers won 41% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .213 against Orioles pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 190 of 2,719 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 396 of 5,433 batters (7%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Boston Red Sox – No Injuries Reported
- Baltimore Orioles – No Injuries Reported
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