- The Reds are -120 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles vs Reds Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Orioles / Reds TV Channel: MAS2 | BSOH | MLBN
The Baltimore Orioles (+100) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-120) on Sunday, May 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Orioles are 22-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 18-15 ATS.
Orioles vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer 2-2, 4.16 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Lodolo 3-0, 1.93 ERA
Orioles vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -200 | O 9 -115 | +100 |
| Reds | -1.5 +150 | U 9 -105 | -120 |
Orioles vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 52.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Colton Cowser has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 19 games (+25.10 Units / 132% ROI)
- Adley Rutschman has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+14.45 Units / 89% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.40 Units / 41% ROI)
- Adley Rutschman has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 14 away games (+11.10 Units / 79% ROI)
- Jorge Mateo has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+8.80 Units / 110% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 24 games (+18.40 Units / 77% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 24 games (+14.40 Units / 56% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 24 games (+11.90 Units / 42% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+9.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- Christian Encarnacio has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+8.75 Units / 45% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 130 games (+25.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 64 away games (+20.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 41 away games (+16.97 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 41 away games (+14.56 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 70 of their last 114 games (+17.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 38 games at home (+17.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 128 games (+15.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 35 of their last 66 games at home (+3.23 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.97 Units / 33% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 19-14 against the Run Line (+8.65 Units / 22.58% ROI).
- 22-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.95 Units / 10.45% ROI
- 16-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.8 Units / 2.21% ROI
- 14-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.6 Units / -9.89% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 18-15 against the Run Line (+2 Units / 4.61% ROI).
- 16-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.55 Units / -6.39% ROI
- 17-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.25 Units / 0.69% ROI
- 15-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.85 Units / -10.64% ROI
Reds vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Will Benson (CIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Reds vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Reds vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jordan Westburg (BAL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Reds vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dean Kremer has struck out just 14% (9/64) of left-handed batters he faced this season — tied for 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .284 (90-for-317) against Dean Kremer when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .240 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .122 (6-for-49) against Dean Kremer when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd best among in MLB; League Avg: .216 — 95th Percentile.
Dean Kremer has a strikeout rate of 50% (9 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for best in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Lodolo has a strikeout rate of 44% (8 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 31% (184/601) against Nick Lodolo on inside fastballs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 39% (62/161) against Nick Lodolo this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has spotted his fastball inside for a strike just 54% (324/601) of the time since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Orioles are 18-6 (.750) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 41-22 (.651) after a road win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .489.
The Orioles are 55-41 (.573) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Orioles are 75-47 (.615) after a win since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .508.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Reds are just 56-41 (.577) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Reds are 22-8 (.733) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Reds are 25-22 (.532) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Reds are just 82-112 (.423) after a loss since the 2022 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .488.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .123 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .166.
Reds hitters have 224 strikeouts in 780 PA’s (29%) against RHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Reds are 32-15 (.681) against the run line (22.8% ROI) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .462.
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .422 (657 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .497.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
The Orioles have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Orioles won 53% of road games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 82 of 1,207 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 20% against Orioles pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .300 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .357 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Reds vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Terrin Vavra (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Cionel Perez (Baltimore Orioles): Oblique, 15-Day IL
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