- The Padres are -115 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Padres vs Cardinals Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Padres / Cardinals TV Channel: PDTV | BSMW
The San Diego Padres (-115) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-105) on Thursday, August 29, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:15pm EDT in St. Louis, MO.
This season, the Padres are 76-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 66-67 ATS.
Padres vs Cardinals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael King 11-7, 3.16 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Sonny Gray 11-9, 4.07 ERA
Padres vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +150 | O 7.5 -110 | -115 |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -185 | U 7.5 -110 | -105 |
Padres vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 26 games (+21.70 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 31 games (+16.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 34 games (+12.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 43 games (+12.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 45 games (+11.60 Units / 13% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Masyn Winn has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 21 games at home (+23.50 Units / 112% ROI)
- Pedro Pages has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+14.80 Units / 51% ROI)
- Masyn Winn has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 22 games at home (+13.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 19 games at home (+12.35 Units / 52% ROI)
- Masyn Winn has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 23 games at home (+11.65 Units / 50% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 66 away games (+16.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 58 games (+15.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 57 games (+12.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 away games (+8.70 Units / 38% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 35 games at home (+5.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 50 games at home (+4.40 Units / 7% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.45 Units / 29% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 69-66 against the Run Line (+6.1 Units / 3.65% ROI).
- 76-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.6 Units / 1.99% ROI
- 73-60 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.45 Units / 5.05% ROI
- 60-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -21.2 Units / -14.15% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 66-67 against the Run Line (-7.4 Units / -4.11% ROI).
- 66-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.35 Units / -7.72% ROI
- 62-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.1 Units / -7.64% ROI
- 66-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.5 Units / -1.72% ROI
Cardinals vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Cardinals vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn (STL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Cardinals vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Cardinals vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray (STL) | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| Michael King (SD) | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael King has a strikeout rate of 33% (78 SO in 234 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 19% (38/198) against Michael King on low non-fastballs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 182 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 98th Percentile.
Michael King has struck out 34% (94/276) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Michael King has walked 20 of 233 batters (9%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 11th Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 37% (133/357) against Sonny Gray this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has a strikeout rate of 59% (175 SO in 298 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has allowed an OBP of just .104 (67 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (5 games) — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .234 — 100th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has a strikeout rate of 32% (69 SO in 216 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Padres are 25-16 (.610) after a road win this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Padres are 69-54 (.561) after a road win since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .487.
The Padres are 27-10 (.730) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .640.
The Padres are 13-10 (.565) after a road loss this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .483.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Cardinals are 36-18 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 39-27 (.591) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 54-1 (.982) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .945.
The Cardinals are just 23-38 (.377) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .282 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Padres hitters have just 884 strikeouts in 5,083 PA’s (17%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have just 638 strikeouts in 3,630 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have just 246 strikeouts in 1,453 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters are slugging just .379 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Cardinals hitters are slugging just .360 against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Cardinals hitters have 110 extra-base hits out of 435 total hits (just 25%) versus relief pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Cardinals hitters have grounded into 70 double plays in 914 opportunities (8%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 39% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- St. Louis Cardinals – No Injuries Reported
- San Diego Padres – No Injuries Reported
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