Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 27

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Arizona Diamondbacks' Pavin Smith rounds the bases after his two-run home run during the second inning of a baseball game against the Detroit Tigers, Sunday, June 11, 2023, in Detroit.
(AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 27, 2024, 11:00 AM
  • The Diamondbacks are -125 favorites vs the Padres
  • Padres vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 9 Runs
  • Padres / Diamondbacks TV Channel: DBTV | PDTV | MLBN

The San Diego Padres (+105) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-125) on Friday, September 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.

This season, the Padres are 91-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 83-76 ATS.

Padres vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Padres starting pitcher: Martin Perez 5-5, 4.21 ERA
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Merrill Kelly 5-0, 3.71 ERA

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres-1.5 +165O 8.5 +100+105
Diamondbacks +1.5 -200U 8.5 -120-125

Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


Bet now on Padres vs Diamondbacks and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 49 games (+28.50 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+14.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Over in 26 of his last 50 games (+11.45 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 35 games (+11.40 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Walks Under in 32 of his last 45 games (+10.10 Units / 13% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Corbin Carroll has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 39 games (+33.10 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 29 of his last 50 games (+20.00 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.40 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 19 games at home (+12.05 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Walks Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.80 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 82 games (+19.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 78 away games (+15.65 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 32 away games (+9.55 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.95 Units / 63% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 103 games (+33.40 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 102 games (+19.50 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 94 games (+14.50 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games (+9.55 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 31 games at home (+9.25 Units / 25% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 81-78 against the Run Line (+6.2 Units / 3.13% ROI).

  • 91-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.4 Units / 3.4% ROI
  • 82-73 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.25 Units / 1.29% ROI
  • 73-82 when betting on the total runs Under for -18 Units / -10.21% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 83-76 against the Run Line (+0.1 Units / 0.05% ROI).

  • 88-71 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.75 Units / 4.77% ROI
  • 91-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +22.05 Units / 12.52% ROI
  • 62-91 when betting on the total runs Under for -37.85 Units / -21.77% ROI

Diamondbacks vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Joc Pederson (ARI) 0.5 +375 0.5 -500
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) 0.5 +375 0.5 -500
Christian Walker (ARI) 0.5 +400 0.5 -550
Ketel Marte (ARI) 0.5 +400 0.5 -550
Eugenio Suarez (ARI) 0.5 +425 0.5 -600

Diamondbacks vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Corbin Carroll (ARI) 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Jake McCarthy (ARI) 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Xander Bogaerts (SD) 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
Jurickson Profar (SD) 0.5 -225 0.5 +170
Lourdes Gurriel Jr (ARI) 0.5 -225 0.5 +170

Diamondbacks vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Manny Machado (SD) 0.5 +130 0.5 -165
Christian Walker (ARI) 0.5 +140 0.5 -185
Jackson Merrill (SD) 0.5 +140 0.5 -185
Eugenio Suarez (ARI) 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
Joc Pederson (ARI) 0.5 +150 0.5 -200

Diamondbacks vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Merrill Kelly (ARI) 3.5 -160 3.5 +125
Yu Darvish (SD) 4.5 -120 4.5 -110

Yu Darvish has thrown breaking pitches 51% of the time (602/1,181) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 99th Percentile.

Yu Darvish has retired the leadoff hitter in each of his last 15 innings — Mason Miller has the longest active streak at 26.

Yu Darvish has allowed an OBP of just .235 (476 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 192 total IP; League Avg: .289 — 97th Percentile.

Yu Darvish has a strikeout rate of 41% (9 SO in 22 PAs) over the past seven days (1 games) — 4th best among NL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 22% — 94th Percentile.

Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

The last hit on a Merrill Kelly changeup was August 31st. Hitters are 0 for their last 24 in ABs ending on his changeup. — Hunter Gaddis has the longest active streak at 29.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (288/474) against Merrill Kelly on non-fastballs since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 192 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .135 (117-for-867) against Merrill Kelly with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 192 total IP; League Avg: .169 — 95th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .145 (17 GB hits out of 117 GBs) against Merrill Kelly with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 192 total IP; League Avg: .237 — 98th Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Padres are 19-46 (.292) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .196.

The Padres are 32-13 (.711) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .643.

The Padres are 27-20 (.574) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Padres are 45-32 (.584) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .475.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Diamondbacks are 20-16 (.556) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .357.

The Diamondbacks are 25-15 (.625) after a road win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .463.

The Diamondbacks are 42-43 (.494) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .373.

The Diamondbacks are 65-14 (.812) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.

Padres hitters have just 777 strikeouts in 4,410 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Padres are batting .204 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Padres hitters have just 273 strikeouts in 1,583 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Padres are batting .305 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .262.

The Diamondbacks are batting .282 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .345 (1,951 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .313.

The Diamondbacks are batting .279 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .348 (2,964 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .316.

Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,922 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0

Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.

The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 33% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have an ERA of 4.71 (712.0 IP) at home this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Arizona Diamondbacks – No Injuries Reported
  • San Diego Padres – No Injuries Reported

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.