- The Guardians are + favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Padres / Guardians TV Channel: ATV+
The San Diego Padres (+) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+) on Friday, July 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Padres are 50-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 48-47 ATS.
Padres vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Matt Waldron 5-8, 3.73 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee 7-4, 3.81 ERA
Padres vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -175 | O 8 -125 | + |
| Guardians | -1.5 +145 | U 8 -105 | + |
Padres vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s MLB game with 53.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+13.55 Units / 75% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 away games (+11.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+11.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 games (+37.00 Units / 231% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 44 games (+19.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 26 of his last 43 games (+15.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.30 Units / 50% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 18 games (+11.40 Units / 55% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 45 away games (+13.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 away games (+8.80 Units / 50% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.55 Units / 38% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+4.25 Units / 58% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 57 of their last 95 games (+15.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 36 games at home (+14.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 36 games at home (+13.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 37 games at home (+10.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 36 games at home (+10.40 Units / 25% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 49-50 against the Run Line (+0.8 Units / 0.65% ROI).
- 50-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.55 Units / -6.66% ROI
- 53-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.95 Units / 3.65% ROI
- 45-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.7 Units / -12.47% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 48-47 against the Run Line (+4.2 Units / 3.63% ROI).
- 58-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.92 Units / 11.17% ROI
- 47-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.6 Units / 0.57% ROI
- 42-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.55 Units / -9.19% ROI
Guardians vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Guardians vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Guardians vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Guardians vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Waldron (SD) | 3.5 -130 | 3.5 +100 |
| Tanner Bibee (CLE) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matt Waldron allowed a batting average of .435 vs right-handed batters (tied for third worst)– fifth Percentile and just .042 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (best among qualified SPs)– 100th Percentile.
Matt Waldron has allowed a .870 SLG vs right-handed batters (second worst)– second Percentile and just .042 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (best among qualified SPs)– 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 28% (20/71) against Matt Waldron on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .272 (43-for-158) against Matt Waldron when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .227 — 12th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tanner Bibee has struck out 27% (70/258) of left-handed batters he faced this season — tied for 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 86th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .442 (23-for-52) against Tanner Bibee on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .330 — third Percentile.
The average home run distance against Tanner Bibee since the 2022 season is 383.5 feet — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 398.3
Opponents are hitting .295 (26-for-88) against Tanner Bibee’s elevated fastball this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .211 — eighth Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Padres are just 0-44 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Padres are 37-5 (.881) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
The Padres are just 1-110 (.009) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Padres are just 4-171 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Guardians are 30-11 (.732) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Guardians are 18-14 (.562) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .299.
The Guardians are 10-14 (.417) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Guardians are 18-8 (.692) after a home win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .520.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .277 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Padres hitters have just 563 strikeouts in 2,818 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have just 944 strikeouts in 4,685 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres are batting .320 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Guardians have an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.
Guardians hitters have just 2,055 strikeouts in 11,271 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (6,324 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .200 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .258.
Guardians pitchers have won 47% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Guardians have allowed 0.73 runs per game (69/95) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
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