- The Guardians are + favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Padres / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | PDTV
The San Diego Padres () visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians () on Saturday, July 20, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Padres are 50-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 49-47 ATS.
Padres vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 8-8, 4.00 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams 0-1, 3.77 ERA
Padres vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | O | ||
| Guardians | U |
Padres vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+13.55 Units / 75% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 away games (+11.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+11.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 games (+37.00 Units / 231% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 44 games (+19.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 26 of his last 43 games (+15.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.30 Units / 50% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 18 games (+11.40 Units / 55% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 46 away games (+12.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 away games (+9.80 Units / 52% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 away games (+3.25 Units / 39% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 37 games at home (+15.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 37 games at home (+14.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 57 of their last 96 games (+14.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 38 games at home (+12.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 37 games at home (+11.40 Units / 27% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 49-51 against the Run Line (-0.75 Units / -0.6% ROI).
- 50-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.55 Units / -7.39% ROI
- 53-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.85 Units / 2.61% ROI
- 46-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.7 Units / -11.44% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 49-47 against the Run Line (+5.55 Units / 4.76% ROI).
- 59-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.92 Units / 11.82% ROI
- 47-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.5 Units / -0.47% ROI
- 43-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.55 Units / -8.14% ROI
Guardians vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Guardians vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Guardians vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Guardians vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Waldron (SD) | 3.5 -130 | 3.5 +100 |
| Tanner Bibee (CLE) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .199 (133-for-670) against Dylan Cease when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has walked 80 of 763 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 55% of the time (4,605/8,367) since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has struck out 42% (11/26) of left-handed batters he faced in his last two starts — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 73% (11/15) against Gavin Williams in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Gavin Williams has not allowed a HR in any of his last four starts dating back to September 17th, 2023 — Scott Alexander has the longest active streak at 13.
Gavin Williams has a strikeout rate of just 14% (9 SO in 62 PAs) this month (3 games) — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — seventh Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 31% (8/26) against Gavin Williams this month (3 games) — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 14th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Padres are just 12-16 (.429) after a home loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .547.
The Padres are just 1-111 (.009) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Padres are just 4-172 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Padres are just 12-22 (.353) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Guardians are 10-14 (.417) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Guardians are 31-11 (.738) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .531.
The Guardians are 18-14 (.562) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Guardians are 48-1 (.980) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .896.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .275 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Padres hitters have just 668 strikeouts in 3,727 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .376 (456 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .329.
The Padres are batting .317 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Guardians have a winning percentage of 74% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Guardians hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 35% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians hitters have just 2,060 strikeouts in 11,301 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (6,348 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .199 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Guardians pitchers have won 47% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Guardians have allowed 0.72 runs per game (69/96) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Guardians vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
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