- The Guardians are -120 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Padres / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | PDTV | ESPN+
The San Diego Padres (+100) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-120) on Sunday, July 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Padres are 51-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 49-48 ATS.
Padres vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael King 7-6, 3.43 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Ben Lively 8-5, 3.60 ERA
Padres vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -210 | O 8 -110 | +100 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +160 | U 8 -110 | -120 |
Padres vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 54.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+13.55 Units / 75% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 away games (+11.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+11.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 games (+37.00 Units / 231% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 44 games (+19.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 26 of his last 43 games (+15.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.30 Units / 50% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 18 games (+11.40 Units / 55% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 47 away games (+13.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 away games (+8.80 Units / 45% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 away games (+7.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+4.25 Units / 45% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 38 games at home (+14.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 38 games at home (+13.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 57 of their last 97 games (+12.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 39 games at home (+11.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 38 games at home (+10.05 Units / 23% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 50-51 against the Run Line (+0.25 Units / 0.2% ROI).
- 51-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.55 Units / -6.56% ROI
- 53-47 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.7 Units / 1.54% ROI
- 47-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.7 Units / -10.44% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 49-48 against the Run Line (+4.55 Units / 3.87% ROI).
- 59-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.77 Units / 10.81% ROI
- 47-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.65 Units / -1.54% ROI
- 44-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.55 Units / -7.12% ROI
Guardians vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Kyle Higashioka (SD) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Guardians vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Guardians vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| David Peralta (SD) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Guardians vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively (CLE) | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -120 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael King has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 82.3 MPH on non-fastballs since the 2022 season (282 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 87.1
Michael King has a strikeout rate of 33% (60 SO in 180 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 95th Percentile.
Michael King has struck out 32% (73/226) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 95th Percentile.
Michael King has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.3 MPH since the 2022 season (606 balls in play) — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 88.9
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .059 (1-for-17) against Ben Lively when going through the lineup the first time in a game in his last two starts — tied for 4th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .229 — 96th Percentile.
Ben Lively has allowed a slugging percentage of .630 (92 Total Bases / 146 ABs) on inside fastballs since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 168 total IP; League Avg: .430 — second Percentile.
Ben Lively has allowed a slugging percentage of .630 (92 Total Bases / 146 ABs) on inside fastballs since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: .434 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 8% (4/48) against Ben Lively this month (3 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Padres are just 32-112 (.222) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Padres are just 0-45 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Padres are just 12-45 (.211) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.
The Padres are just 10-163 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .095.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Guardians are 31-11 (.738) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .531.
The Guardians are 18-14 (.562) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Guardians are 13-3 (.812) after a home loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .547.
The Guardians are 10-14 (.417) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .316 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .378 (459 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .329.
The Padres are batting .275 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Padres hitters have just 945 strikeouts in 4,689 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters have just 2,070 strikeouts in 11,326 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .198 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Guardians pitchers have won 47% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Guardians have allowed 0.75 runs per game (73/97) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Guardians vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
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