- The Padres are +100 favorites vs the Mariners
- Padres vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Padres / Mariners TV Channel: RTNW | PDTV | MLBN
The San Diego Padres (+100) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-120) on Tuesday, September 10, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle, WA.
This season, the Padres are 81-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 62-82 ATS.
Padres vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish 4-3, 3.51 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby 11-10, 3.49 ERA
Padres vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +170 | O 7 -105 | +100 |
| Mariners | +1.5 -210 | U 7 -115 | -120 |
Padres vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 52.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 35 games (+36.40 Units / 104% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 43 games (+15.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+13.30 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 43 games (+12.35 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luke Raley has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games at home (+24.70 Units / 176% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 20 games at home (+14.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+12.10 Units / 55% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+12.10 Units / 55% ROI)
- Luis Urias has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+11.15 Units / 19% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 67 games (+13.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 68 games (+13.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 70 away games (+13.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 away games (+10.30 Units / 36% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 68 games at home (+17.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 69 games at home (+8.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 59 games at home (+7.35 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 59 games at home (+6.45 Units / 10% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 72-73 against the Run Line (+1.15 Units / 0.64% ROI).
- 81-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 0.87% ROI
- 79-64 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.05 Units / 5.71% ROI
- 64-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.8 Units / -14.8% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 62-82 against the Run Line (-23.85 Units / -13.29% ROI).
- 73-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.95 Units / -8.87% ROI
- 64-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.4 Units / -9.81% ROI
- 73-64 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.7 Units / 1.71% ROI
Mariners vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Mariners vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Victor Robles (SEA) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Mariners vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
Mariners vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| George Kirby (SEA) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
| Yu Darvish (SD) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -135 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yu Darvish has thrown his slider 50% of the time (318/637) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total SL; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has thrown breaking pitches 56% of the time (358/637) when behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has thrown breaking pitches 50% of the time (472/952) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 99th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of just .234 (44 Total Bases / 188 ABs) on fastballs away since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 186 total IP; League Avg: .376 — 98th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
George Kirby has walked 8 of 372 right-handed batters (2%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 98th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 6 of 261 batters (2%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 22 of 754 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 21 of 689 batters (3%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Padres are 121-21 (.852) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .789.
The Padres are 15-11 (.577) after a road loss this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Padres are 10-55 (.154) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Padres are 40-29 (.580) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Mariners are 206-4 (.981) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Mariners are 42-5 (.894) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Mariners are just 5-27 (.156) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Mariners are just 56-14 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .858.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have just 1 strikeout in 29 PA’s (3%) against LHP this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Padres are batting .279 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres hitters have just 694 strikeouts in 3,969 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have just 71 strikeouts in 464 PA’s (15%) over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .208 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Mariners are batting just .195 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Mariners are batting just .223 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Mariners are batting just .219 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres pitchers have walked 14 of 107 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,922 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 23% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 2.70 (629.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.99.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .277 (5,135 PA’s) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .254 (1,278 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .305.
Mariners vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Seattle Mariners – No Injuries Reported
- San Diego Padres – No Injuries Reported
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