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The San Diego Padres () visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals () on Wednesday, July 24, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Padres are 53-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 57-44 ATS.
Padres vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Matt Waldron 5-9, 3.61 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Mitchell Parker 5-5, 3.93 ERA
Padres vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Padres | O | ||
Nationals | U |
Padres vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 55.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 32 games (+35.50 Units / 111% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 33 games (+12.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Walks Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+11.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- Tyler Wade has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+11.40 Units / 91% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Juan Yepez has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+14.55 Units / 83% ROI)
- Juan Yepez has hit the Hits Over in his last 14 games (+14.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Trey Lipscomb has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.85 Units / 54% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 20 games (+10.80 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+10.70 Units / 53% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 49 away games (+15.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 20 away games (+9.35 Units / 42% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 away games (+8.80 Units / 40% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+6.25 Units / 54% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 54 of their last 93 games (+11.35 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 93 games (+11.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 39 games at home (+7.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 27 games (+4.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games at home (+4.70 Units / 9% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 52-51 against the Run Line (+2.25 Units / 1.72% ROI).
- 53-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.55 Units / -4.94% ROI
- 53-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.4 Units / -0.36% ROI
- 49-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.7 Units / -8.48% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 57-44 against the Run Line (+7.43 Units / 5.66% ROI).
- 47-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +8 Units / 7.54% ROI
- 47-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.8 Units / -6.15% ROI
- 49-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.22 Units / -2.88% ROI
Nationals vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
Juan Yepez (WAS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Jesse Winker (WSH) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Nationals vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Juan Yepez (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Jesse Winker (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Nationals vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Juan Yepez (WAS) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Jesse Winker (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 28% (20/72) against Matt Waldron on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Matt Waldron has a strikeout rate of just 17% (30 SO in 180 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 12th Percentile.
Matt Waldron has thrown off-speed pitches 64% of the time (297/467) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 38% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a miss rate of just 13% (25/186) against Matt Waldron when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitchell Parker has 25 three-pitch strikeouts this season — tied for 10th most among pitchers in MLB — 98th Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has allowed an OPS of .977 (75 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: .731 — first Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has a strike rate of 69% (390/565) when ahead in the count this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 98th Percentile.
8 of Mitchell Parker’s 32 breaking pitch strikeouts (25%) have been backdoor this season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 90th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Padres are just 1-111 (.009) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Padres are just 0-45 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Padres are just 4-172 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Padres are just 12-16 (.429) after a home loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .545.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Nationals are just 83-126 (.397) at home since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Nationals are 9-2 (.818) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Nationals are just 65-106 (.380) after a win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
The Nationals are just 53-206 (.205) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .318 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .379 (466 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .329.
The Padres are batting .274 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Padres hitters have just 491 strikeouts in 2,698 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 567 strikeouts in 2,984 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .950 (1,798 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.086.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .336 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.
The Nationals are just 5-17 (.227) against the run line (-41.4% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .442.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Padres pitchers have walked 2 of 71 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (6,412 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 63% of their games this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 4.66 (1908.0 IP) at home since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
Nationals vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jake Alu (Washington Nationals): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Joey Gallo (Washington Nationals): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Josiah Gray (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Williams (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Yu Darvish (San Diego Padres): Personal, Out
- Rougned Odor (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tom Cosgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Suspension, Suspension
- Joe Musgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Fernando Tatis (San Diego Padres): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
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