- The – are favorites vs the –
- Padres vs Nationals Over / Under today: Runs
- Padres / Nationals TV Channel: MAS2 | PDTV
The San Diego Padres () visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals () on Wednesday, July 24, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Padres are 53-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 57-44 ATS.
Padres vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Matt Waldron 5-9, 3.61 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Mitchell Parker 5-5, 3.93 ERA
Padres vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | O | ||
| Nationals | U |
Padres vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 55.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Padres vs Nationals and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 32 games (+35.50 Units / 111% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 33 games (+12.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Walks Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+11.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- Tyler Wade has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+11.40 Units / 91% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Juan Yepez has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+14.55 Units / 83% ROI)
- Juan Yepez has hit the Hits Over in his last 14 games (+14.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Trey Lipscomb has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.85 Units / 54% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 20 games (+10.80 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+10.70 Units / 53% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 49 away games (+15.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 20 away games (+9.35 Units / 42% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 away games (+8.80 Units / 40% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+6.25 Units / 54% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 54 of their last 93 games (+11.35 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 93 games (+11.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 39 games at home (+7.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 27 games (+4.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games at home (+4.70 Units / 9% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 52-51 against the Run Line (+2.25 Units / 1.72% ROI).
- 53-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.55 Units / -4.94% ROI
- 53-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.4 Units / -0.36% ROI
- 49-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.7 Units / -8.48% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 57-44 against the Run Line (+7.43 Units / 5.66% ROI).
- 47-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +8 Units / 7.54% ROI
- 47-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.8 Units / -6.15% ROI
- 49-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.22 Units / -2.88% ROI
Nationals vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Juan Yepez (WAS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jesse Winker (WSH) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Nationals vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Juan Yepez (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jesse Winker (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Nationals vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Yepez (WAS) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jesse Winker (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 28% (20/72) against Matt Waldron on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Matt Waldron has a strikeout rate of just 17% (30 SO in 180 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 12th Percentile.
Matt Waldron has thrown off-speed pitches 64% of the time (297/467) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 38% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a miss rate of just 13% (25/186) against Matt Waldron when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitchell Parker has 25 three-pitch strikeouts this season — tied for 10th most among pitchers in MLB — 98th Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has allowed an OPS of .977 (75 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: .731 — first Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has a strike rate of 69% (390/565) when ahead in the count this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 98th Percentile.
8 of Mitchell Parker’s 32 breaking pitch strikeouts (25%) have been backdoor this season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 90th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Padres are just 1-111 (.009) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Padres are just 0-45 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Padres are just 4-172 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Padres are just 12-16 (.429) after a home loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .545.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Nationals are just 83-126 (.397) at home since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Nationals are 9-2 (.818) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Nationals are just 65-106 (.380) after a win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
The Nationals are just 53-206 (.205) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .318 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .379 (466 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .329.
The Padres are batting .274 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Padres hitters have just 491 strikeouts in 2,698 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 567 strikeouts in 2,984 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .950 (1,798 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.086.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .336 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.
The Nationals are just 5-17 (.227) against the run line (-41.4% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .442.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Padres pitchers have walked 2 of 71 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (6,412 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 63% of their games this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 4.66 (1908.0 IP) at home since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
Nationals vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jake Alu (Washington Nationals): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Joey Gallo (Washington Nationals): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Josiah Gray (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Williams (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Yu Darvish (San Diego Padres): Personal, Out
- Rougned Odor (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tom Cosgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Suspension, Suspension
- Joe Musgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Fernando Tatis (San Diego Padres): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
Bet now on Padres vs Nationals and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
