- The Padres are -175 favorites vs the Nationals
- Padres vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Padres / Nationals TV Channel: MAS2 | PDTV | ESPN+
The San Diego Padres (-165) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+140) on Thursday, July 25, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 12:05pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Padres are 54-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 57-45 ATS.
Padres vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 9-8, 3.77 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin 2-9, 5.39 ERA
Padres vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 -105 | O 9 -120 | -165 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -115 | U 9 +100 | +140 |
Padres vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 63.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 33 games (+34.50 Units / 105% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Walks Under in 23 of his last 28 games (+12.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 36 games (+12.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 46 games (+12.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- Tyler Wade has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+11.40 Units / 91% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Juan Yepez has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+15.95 Units / 86% ROI)
- Juan Yepez has hit the Hits Over in his last 15 games (+15.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Trey Lipscomb has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+14.85 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+11.85 Units / 56% ROI)
- Riley Adams has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.10 Units / 37% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 50 away games (+16.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 21 away games (+8.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 away games (+7.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 away games (+7.25 Units / 57% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 94 games (+10.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 54 of their last 94 games (+9.60 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games at home (+6.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 46 games at home (+5.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games (+5.75 Units / 19% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 53-51 against the Run Line (+3.75 Units / 2.85% ROI).
- 54-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.55 Units / -4.15% ROI
- 54-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.6 Units / 0.53% ROI
- 49-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.8 Units / -9.35% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 57-45 against the Run Line (+5.68 Units / 4.27% ROI).
- 47-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.9 Units / 6.44% ROI
- 48-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.8 Units / -5.2% ROI
- 49-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.32 Units / -3.83% ROI
Nationals vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Nationals vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ha-seong Kim (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Luis Campusano (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Nationals vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Luis Campusano (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Nationals vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -110 |
| Patrick Corbin (WAS) | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -125 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 37% (195/523) against Dylan Cease this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has a strikeout rate of 50% (9 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has a strikeout rate of 48% (21 SO in 44 PAs) over the last 14 days — best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 60% of the time (2,609/4,317) against right-handed batters since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .307 (131-for-427) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .312 (213-for-682) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — fourth Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OBP of .380 (179 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .291 — first Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed a slugging percentage of .491 (335 Total Bases / 682 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .376 — fourth Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Padres are just 0-45 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Padres are just 12-16 (.429) after a home loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .544.
The Padres are just 1-111 (.009) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Padres are just 10-163 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .095.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Nationals are 9-2 (.818) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Nationals are just 53-208 (.203) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
The Nationals are just 83-128 (.393) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Nationals are just 52-76 (.406) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .522.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .319 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Padres are batting .278 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Padres are batting .262 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .379 (468 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .329.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 568 strikeouts in 2,988 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Nationals have scored first in just 38% of their road games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .951 (1,806 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.087.
The Nationals are just 5-17 (.227) against the run line (-41.4% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .442.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Padres pitchers have walked 12 of 266 batters (4%) over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (6,437 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 62% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Nationals vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jake Alu (Washington Nationals): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Joey Gallo (Washington Nationals): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Josiah Gray (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Williams (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Yu Darvish (San Diego Padres): Personal, Out
- Rougned Odor (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tom Cosgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Suspension, Suspension
- Joe Musgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Fernando Tatis (San Diego Padres): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
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