- The Padres are -110 favorites vs the Orioles
- Padres vs Orioles Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Padres / Orioles TV Channel: FS1 | MASN | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (-110) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-110) on Saturday, July 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Baltimore, MD.
This season, the Padres are 56-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 54-49 ATS.
Padres vs Orioles Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael King 8-6, 3.31 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer 4-6, 4.38 ERA
Padres vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +150 | O 9 -115 | -110 |
| Orioles | +1.5 -185 | U 9 -105 | -110 |
Padres vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 35 games (+32.50 Units / 93% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Walks Under in 25 of his last 30 games (+14.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 48 games (+12.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 26 of his last 38 games (+12.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- Tyler Wade has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+11.40 Units / 91% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Anthony Santander has hit the Home Runs Over in 18 of his last 47 games (+39.35 Units / 84% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 50 games (+21.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Over in 24 of his last 47 games (+12.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 48 games (+12.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- Adley Rutschman has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+11.40 Units / 56% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 52 away games (+18.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 away games (+9.95 Units / 65% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 away games (+7.55 Units / 30% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 94 games (+13.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 53 of their last 88 games (+12.85 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 56 games (+9.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games (+7.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 36 of their last 62 games (+5.95 Units / 8% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 55-51 against the Run Line (+5.75 Units / 4.3% ROI).
- 56-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.85 Units / -2.09% ROI
- 55-50 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.6 Units / 0.52% ROI
- 50-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.95 Units / -9.3% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 54-49 against the Run Line (+13 Units / 10.9% ROI).
- 61-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.75 Units / 1.87% ROI
- 54-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.65 Units / 11.32% ROI
- 38-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -21.65 Units / -19.21% ROI
Orioles vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -1200 |
Orioles vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jordan Westburg (BAL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Orioles vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Orioles vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael King (SD) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael King has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 85.5 MPH (263 batted balls) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 88.7 — 98th Percentile.
Michael King has allowed an OPS of just .107 (38 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (3 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .479 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 20% (60/301) against Michael King on non-fastballs since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 170 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Michael King has walked 17 of 188 batters (9%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — eighth Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dean Kremer has thrown his changeup for a strike just 51% (181/358) of the time since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 61% — second Percentile.
Dean Kremer has a strike rate of just 56% (97/172) in his last two starts — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.
Dean Kremer has a strike rate of just 56% (97/172) over the last 14 days — tied for 2nd lowest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — sixth Percentile.
Dean Kremer has a first-pitch strike rate of just 47% (21/45) in his last two starts — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Padres are just 0-45 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .055.
The Padres are just 7-105 (.062) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Padres are just 12-16 (.429) after a home loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .543.
The Padres are just 1-111 (.009) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Orioles are 57-44 (.564) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Orioles are 53-30 (.639) after a road win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .480.
The Orioles are 19-9 (.679) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 32-24 (.571) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (6,453 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Padres pitchers have an ERA of 3.51 (440.2 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.19.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have won 43% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Orioles have won 46% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 257 of 3,811 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles pitchers have won 45% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jonathan Heasley (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Out
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Danny Coulombe (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tyler Wells (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jorge Mateo (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Yu Darvish (San Diego Padres): Personal, Out
- Rougned Odor (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tom Cosgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Suspension, Suspension
- Joe Musgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Fernando Tatis (San Diego Padres): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
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