- The Padres are -160 favorites vs the Pirates
- Padres vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Padres / Pirates TV Channel: PDTV | SNPT | FS1
The San Diego Padres (-160) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+135) on Wednesday, August 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Padres are 62-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 62-50 ATS.
Padres vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael King 9-6, 3.29 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Marco Gonzales 1-1, 3.73 ERA
Padres vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +105 | O 8 -115 | -160 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -125 | U 8 -105 | +135 |
Padres vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 58.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 43 games (+33.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+15.05 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 46 games (+13.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+13.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- Tyler Wade has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 13 away games (+12.55 Units / 93% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 39 games (+19.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 18 games at home (+15.40 Units / 49% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 20 games at home (+13.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+10.45 Units / 26% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 55 away games (+19.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 37 games (+12.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 26 away games (+6.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.70 Units / 33% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 73 games (+14.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 68 games (+10.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+10.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+8.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 68 games (+6.95 Units / 9% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 60-54 against the Run Line (+8.05 Units / 5.62% ROI).
- 62-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.5 Units / 0.34% ROI
- 60-53 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.25 Units / 1.81% ROI
- 53-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.65 Units / -10.77% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 62-50 against the Run Line (+9.61 Units / 6.63% ROI).
- 56-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.15 Units / -0.88% ROI
- 51-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.8 Units / -9.49% ROI
- 57-51 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.68 Units / 1.37% ROI
Pirates vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Kyle Higashioka (SD) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1100 |
Pirates vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Donovan Solano (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Pirates vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Kyle Higashioka (SD) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Donovan Solano (SD) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marco Gonzales (PIT) | 2.5 -120 | 2.5 -110 |
| Michael King (SD) | 6.5 +125 | 6.5 -160 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael King has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 82.5 MPH on non-fastballs since last season (287 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 109 total IP; League Avg: 87.3
Michael King has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 19.1 innings pitched — Brusdar Graterol has the longest active streak at 28.2.
Michael King has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.2 MPH since last season (571 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 109 total IP; League Avg: 89.1
Michael King has a strikeout rate of 34% (67 SO in 198 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 95th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marco Gonzales has struck out just 13% (115/874) of right-handed batters he faced since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 174 total IP; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has a strikeout rate of just 12% (48 SO in 416 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 174 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 0 Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has thrown his changeup 35% of the time (1,127/3,211) against right-handed batters since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 174 total CH; League Avg: 13% — 98th Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has a strikeout rate of just 7% (2 SO in 31 PAs) in close and late situations since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 174 total IP; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Padres are just 2-113 (.017) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Padres are 31-23 (.574) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .476.
The Padres are 19-13 (.594) after a road win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .462.
The Padres are 35-25 (.583) after a win this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .490.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Pirates are just 17-28 (.378) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 45-61 (.425) after a home win since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .531.
The Pirates are just 6-11 (.353) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 16-27 (.372) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .453.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .281 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres hitters have just 761 strikeouts in 4,277 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have just 222 strikeouts in 1,280 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres are batting .265 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .497 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .580.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .494 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .572.
Pirates hitters have 42 extra-base hits out of 160 total hits (just 26%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Pirates are batting just .185 in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (6,688 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,922 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,525 of 16,758 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates have won 43% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The longest HR allowed by the Pirates pitchers in the 2023 season traveled 459.1 feet — — 5th shortest in MLB; League Avg: 473.2
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 3.42 (284.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.11.
Pirates vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Bryan Reynolds (Pittsburgh Pirates): Back, Day-To-Day
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Bailey Falter (Pittsburgh Pirates): Triceps, 15-Day IL
- Ryan Borucki (Pittsburgh Pirates): Wrist, 60-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Yu Darvish (San Diego Padres): Personal, Out
- Rougned Odor (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tom Cosgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Suspension, Suspension
- Joe Musgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Fernando Tatis (San Diego Padres): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
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