- The Padres are -110 favorites vs the Pirates
- Padres vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Padres / Pirates TV Channel: PDTV | SNPT
The San Diego Padres (-110) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-110) on Thursday, August 8, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Padres are 63-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 63-50 ATS.
Padres vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 3-6, 4.64 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz 0-0, 26.99 ERA
Padres vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +155 | O 8.5 -105 | -110 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -115 | -110 |
Padres vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 44 games (+41.00 Units / 93% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+16.25 Units / 51% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+12.95 Units / 51% ROI)
- Tyler Wade has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 14 away games (+11.55 Units / 79% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 40 games (+20.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 18 games at home (+15.40 Units / 49% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 21 games at home (+12.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 31 games (+11.45 Units / 27% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 56 away games (+18.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 38 games (+13.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games (+7.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.85 Units / 37% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 74 games (+15.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 69 games (+9.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games (+9.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games (+9.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 69 games (+5.95 Units / 8% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 60-55 against the Run Line (+7.05 Units / 4.89% ROI).
- 63-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.5 Units / 1% ROI
- 61-53 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.25 Units / 2.59% ROI
- 53-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.75 Units / -11.54% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 63-50 against the Run Line (+10.61 Units / 7.25% ROI).
- 56-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.15 Units / -1.64% ROI
- 52-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.8 Units / -8.61% ROI
- 57-52 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.58 Units / 0.47% ROI
Pirates vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan De La Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
Pirates vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Pirates vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan De La Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Rowdy Tellez (PIT) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Ortiz (PIT) | 3.5 +110 | 3.5 -140 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The last hit on a Randy Vasquez cutter was June 22nd. Hitters are 0 for their last 17 in ABs ending on his cutter. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Opponents are hitting .412 (21-for-51) against Randy Vasquez’s inside fastball this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: .255 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 14% (36/255) against Randy Vasquez this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .312 (95-for-304) against Randy Vasquez this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: .244 — first Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Ortiz has a strikeout rate of just 35% (65 SO in 185 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 8th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 44% — seventh Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has struck out just 17% (34/199) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 12th lowest among among 104 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 24% — 11th Percentile.
Opponents had a Hard-Hit Rate of 58% (130/224) against Luis Ortiz on pitches in the strike zone in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Luis Ortiz allowed an average Exit Velocity of 92.4 MPH (287 batted balls) in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 89.2 — 0 Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Padres are 36-25 (.590) after a win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .491.
The Padres are 20-13 (.606) after a road win this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .464.
The Padres are 32-23 (.582) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .477.
The Padres are 47-4 (.922) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .858.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Pirates are just 12-18 (.400) after a home win this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Pirates are just 98-22 (.817) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .859.
The Pirates are just 31-64 (.326) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Pirates are just 17-28 (.378) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .282 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres hitters have just 228 strikeouts in 1,312 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have just 768 strikeouts in 4,329 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have just 540 strikeouts in 3,017 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 201 strikeouts in 578 PA’s (35%) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have 73 strikeouts in 196 PA’s (37%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .495 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .572.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .498 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .580.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (6,715 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,530 of 16,810 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% over the past seven days (5 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Pirates have won 41% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Pirates vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Bryan Reynolds (Pittsburgh Pirates): Back, Day-To-Day
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Bailey Falter (Pittsburgh Pirates): Triceps, 15-Day IL
- Ryan Borucki (Pittsburgh Pirates): Wrist, 60-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Yu Darvish (San Diego Padres): Personal, Out
- Rougned Odor (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tom Cosgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Suspension, Suspension
- Joe Musgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Fernando Tatis (San Diego Padres): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
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