- The Padres are -120 favorites vs the Reds
- Padres vs Reds Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Padres / Reds TV Channel: BSOH | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (-120) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+100) on Tuesday, May 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Padres are 25-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 26-21 ATS.
Padres vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Joe Musgrove 3-3, 6.48 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Andrew Abbott 2-4, 3.06 ERA
Padres vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +135 | O 9 -105 | -120 |
| Reds | +1.5 -165 | U 9 -115 | +100 |
Padres vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 53.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 away games (+31.00 Units / 155% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 46 games (+18.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+14.85 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 39 games (+14.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+11.20 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Spencer Steer has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+13.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 37 games (+12.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+12.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 40 games (+11.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 31 games (+9.60 Units / 26% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 24 away games (+13.65 Units / 43% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 24 away games (+7.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 19 games at home (+12.90 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+8.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games (+7.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in their last 7 games at home (+7.10 Units / 83% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 2 of their last 6 games (+0.45 Units / 7% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 26-24 against the Run Line (+3.5 Units / 5.64% ROI).
- 25-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.35 Units / -8.34% ROI
- 26-23 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 1.83% ROI
- 23-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.7 Units / -10.29% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 26-21 against the Run Line (+3.45 Units / 5.47% ROI).
- 19-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.15 Units / -18.34% ROI
- 22-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.8 Units / -7.28% ROI
- 23-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.25 Units / -2.44% ROI
Reds vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -300 |
| Mike Ford (CIN) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Reds vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Donovan Solano (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Luis Campusano (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Reds vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Mike Ford (CIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Reds vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Musgrove (SD) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -105 |
| Andrew Abbott (CIN) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -135 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .461 (35-for-76) against Joe Musgrove in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: .320 — first Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed an OPS of 1.011 (71 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: .676 — 0 Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has located his fastball inside 47% of the time (318/671) since last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 97th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed a slugging percentage of .581 (54 Total Bases / 93 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: .388 — 0 Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Andrew Abbott has walked 2 of 81 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 22% (33/153) against Andrew Abbott’s curve and slider since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Andrew Abbott has allowed a slugging percentage of .595 (47 Total Bases / 79 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .379 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 28% (63/228) against Andrew Abbott on non-fastballs since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Padres are just 7-19 (.269) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Padres are just 19-34 (.358) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Padres are just 1-89 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Padres are just 4-150 (.026) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Reds are just 56-43 (.566) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Reds are just 80-104 (.435) at home since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Reds are just 24-27 (.471) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.
The Reds are 22-9 (.710) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .287 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Padres hitters have just 267 strikeouts in 1,382 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Games involving the Padres went UNDER in 73% of their games (39.5% ROI) when moneyline underdogs of +150 or more since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Padres hitters have an OPS of .753 (1,382 PA’s) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .129 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Reds are batting just .107 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
The Reds are batting just .166 on breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .221.
The Reds are batting just .217 this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .199 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .231.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .297 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
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