- The Padres are -120 favorites vs the Reds
- Padres vs Reds Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Padres / Reds TV Channel: BSOH | PDTV
The San Diego Padres () visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds () on Wednesday, May 22, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Padres are 25-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 27-21 ATS.
Padres vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael King 3-4, 4.34 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Martinez 1-2, 4.19 ERA
Padres vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | O | ||
| Reds | U |
Padres vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 55.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 21 away games (+30.00 Units / 143% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 47 games (+19.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 40 games (+15.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+12.20 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Spencer Steer has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+13.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+12.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 38 games (+11.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 40 games (+11.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 31 games (+9.60 Units / 26% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 25 away games (+12.65 Units / 38% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 25 away games (+6.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.70 Units / 35% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 20 games at home (+13.90 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games (+9.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 30 games (+8.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in their last 8 games at home (+8.10 Units / 82% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 7 games (+1.45 Units / 20% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 26-25 against the Run Line (+2.5 Units / 3.96% ROI).
- 25-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.55 Units / -10.02% ROI
- 26-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.15 Units / -0.27% ROI
- 24-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.7 Units / -8.33% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 27-21 against the Run Line (+4.45 Units / 6.88% ROI).
- 20-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.15 Units / -16.24% ROI
- 22-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.95 Units / -9.28% ROI
- 24-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.25 Units / -0.48% ROI
Reds vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -300 |
| Mike Ford (CIN) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Reds vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Donovan Solano (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Luis Campusano (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Reds vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Mike Ford (CIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Reds vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Musgrove (SD) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -105 |
| Andrew Abbott (CIN) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -135 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael King has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.069 (31 Total Bases / 29 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .409 — first Percentile.
Michael King has walked 26 of 237 batters (11%) this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Michael King has walked 26 of 237 batters (11%) this season — tied for 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .256 (41-for-160) against Michael King’s elevated fastball since the 2022 season — 13th highest among among 114 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .205 — 11th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .417 (15-for-36) against Nick Martinez on low fastballs since last season — 4th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .268 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .366 (30-for-82) against Nick Martinez on low fastballs since the 2022 season — 10th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .270 — eighth Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 35% of Nick Martinez’s breaking pitches (257/740) since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 47% — first Percentile.
Nick Martinez has located his fastball inside 57% of the time (122/213) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 99th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Padres are just 1-90 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Padres are just 8-142 (.053) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .095.
The Padres are just 7-19 (.269) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .425.
The Padres are just 4-151 (.026) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Reds are just 24-27 (.471) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.
The Reds are just 46-50 (.479) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .637.
The Reds are 29-14 (.674) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .588.
The Reds are just 81-104 (.438) at home since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have an OBP of just .283 (526 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
The Padres are batting .283 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Padres have a winning percentage of just 39% at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .127 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Reds are batting just .216 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .432 (934 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .504.
Reds hitters have an OBP of just .279 (1,141 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.0 MPH since last season (5,108 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The average home run distance against the Reds pitchers this season is 384.8 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 395.6
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .297 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Reds vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
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