- The Padres are -115 favorites vs the Royals
- Padres vs Royals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Padres / Royals TV Channel: BSKC | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (-125) visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+105) on Saturday, June 1, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Padres are 31-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 38-21 ATS.
Padres vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Joe Musgrove 3-4, 5.74 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Alec Marsh 4-2, 3.24 ERA
Padres vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +135 | O 8.5 +100 | -125 |
| Royals | +1.5 -160 | U 8.5 -120 | +105 |
Padres vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 55.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 33 games (+17.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 44 games (+17.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 49 games (+15.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 36 games (+13.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- Kyle Higashioka has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.35 Units / 77% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 36 games (+21.25 Units / 59% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 36 games (+19.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 28 of his last 36 games (+19.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Singles Under in 36 of his last 46 games (+18.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- Nelson Velazquez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+16.20 Units / 180% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 28 away games (+16.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 28 away games (+9.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 away games (+3.00 Units / 12% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 55 games (+16.89 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 28 games at home (+13.85 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 28 games at home (+10.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+9.50 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.25 Units / 73% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 31-29 against the Run Line (+4.4 Units / 6.01% ROI).
- 31-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.45 Units / -5.74% ROI
- 31-28 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.5 Units / 0.76% ROI
- 28-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.3 Units / -9.46% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 38-21 against the Run Line (+13.29 Units / 16% ROI).
- 35-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.2 Units / 17.57% ROI
- 25-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.05 Units / -14.2% ROI
- 31-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.4 Units / 5.32% ROI
Royals vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Nelson Velazquez (KC) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
Royals vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Royals vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Royals vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Marsh (KC) | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +120 |
| Joe Musgrove (SD) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -160 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .446 (41-for-92) against Joe Musgrove in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: .319 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 32% (100/309) against Joe Musgrove on fastballs since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed a slugging percentage of .741 (20 Total Bases / 27 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: .356 — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of 35% (219/633) against Joe Musgrove since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Alec Marsh has walked 31 of 222 batters (14%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Alec Marsh has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 95.2 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since last season (55 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: 90.3
Alec Marsh has allowed a slugging percentage of .721 (163 Total Bases / 226 ABs) in non-two strike counts since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: .575 — fourth Percentile.
Alec Marsh has allowed an OPS of just .441 (77 PA’s) versus the top of the order this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: .728 — 97th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Padres are just 7-20 (.259) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .426.
The Padres are just 1-93 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Padres are just 19-35 (.352) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Padres are 26-27 (.491) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Royals are just 4-11 (.267) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Royals are just 15-89 (.144) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.
The Royals are just 23-50 (.315) after a road win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .488.
The Royals are just 11-48 (.186) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .383.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .294 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .348 (1,105 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Padres hitters have just 118 strikeouts in 658 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .335 (1,591 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals are batting .333 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Royals are batting .444 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .257.
The Royals have won just 47% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 71%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 33% on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (5,333 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Padres pitchers since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have won only 14% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Royals won just 18% of games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 41% with two-strikes since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Austin Cox (Kansas City Royals): Knee, Day-To-Day
- Michael Massey (Kansas City Royals): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jake Brentz (Kansas City Royals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Carlos Hernandez (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
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