- The Padres are -125 favorites vs the Royals
- Padres vs Royals Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Padres / Royals TV Channel: BSKC | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (-140) visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+115) on Friday, May 31, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Padres are 30-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 38-20 ATS.
Padres vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 5-4, 3.29 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Michael Wacha 4-5, 4.31 ERA
Padres vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +125 | O 7.5 -105 | -140 |
| Royals | +1.5 -155 | U 7.5 -125 | +115 |
Padres vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB game with 55.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 43 games (+18.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 50 games (+17.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 48 games (+14.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 35 games (+14.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 34 games (+10.95 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+20.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 35 games (+18.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 27 of his last 35 games (+18.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 45 games (+17.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 35 games (+14.70 Units / 34% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 27 away games (+15.35 Units / 44% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 27 away games (+8.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.20 Units / 60% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 51% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 54 games (+18.39 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 27 games at home (+14.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 27 games at home (+10.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 15 games at home (+8.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 49% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 30-29 against the Run Line (+3.1 Units / 4.29% ROI).
- 30-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.45 Units / -7.15% ROI
- 30-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.5 Units / -0.78% ROI
- 28-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.3 Units / -8.08% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 38-20 against the Run Line (+14.79 Units / 18.14% ROI).
- 35-23 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.2 Units / 19.28% ROI
- 24-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.05 Units / -16.07% ROI
- 31-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.4 Units / 6.99% ROI
Royals vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Royals vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Luis Campusano (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Royals vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Royals vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha (KC) | 3.5 -125 | 3.5 -105 |
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -160 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease has allowed an OBP of just .247 (259 PAs) this season — eighth best among qualified SPs– 91st Percentile. He allowed an OBP of .332 (783 PAs) last season — third worst among qualified SPs– sixth Percentile.
10 of Dylan Cease’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — 2nd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (20/64) against Dylan Cease in two-strike counts this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fifth Percentile.
Dylan Cease has struck out 35% (47/136) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Wacha has allowed an OPS of just .453 (99 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .668 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .165 (15-for-91) against Michael Wacha when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .228 — 93rd Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 50% of the time (143/284) with two-strikes this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 50% of the time (143/284) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Padres are just 5-87 (.054) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Padres are just 7-20 (.259) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .427.
The Padres are just 1-93 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .054.
The Padres are just 19-35 (.352) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Royals are just 23-50 (.315) after a road win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .489.
The Royals are just 15-89 (.144) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.
The Royals are just 4-11 (.267) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Royals are just 15-29 (.341) after a road win since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .486.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .288 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Padres are batting .303 on the road this month (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Padres hitters are slugging just .345 against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .387.
Padres hitters have just 117 strikeouts in 653 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 47% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 71%.
Royals hitters are slugging .310 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Royals hitters have an OBP of .390 (255 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .327.
Royals hitters are slugging .459 at home this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .392.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% this month (26 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (5,301 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this month (26 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals won just 18% of games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Royals pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Royals vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Austin Cox (Kansas City Royals): Knee, Day-To-Day
- Michael Massey (Kansas City Royals): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jake Brentz (Kansas City Royals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Carlos Hernandez (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
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