- The Phillies are -110 favorites vs the Braves
- Phillies vs Braves Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Phillies / Braves TV Channel: NSPA | BSSO
The Philadelphia Phillies (-110) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-110) on Wednesday, August 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Phillies are 73-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 55-70 ATS.
Phillies vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 11-6, 3.48 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried 7-7, 3.62 ERA
Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +155 | O 7.5 -105 | -110 |
| Braves | +1.5 -190 | U 7.5 -115 | -110 |
Phillies vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryce Harper has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 37 games (+12.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 30 games (+11.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 33 games (+10.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 20 away games (+9.75 Units / 49% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Under in 29 of his last 39 games (+9.40 Units / 13% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ramon Laureano has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 13 games (+22.20 Units / 171% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Under in 32 of his last 49 games (+20.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Under in 37 of his last 50 games (+19.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 34 of his last 49 games (+18.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 49 games (+14.70 Units / 20% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 63 of their last 110 games (+13.00 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 19 away games (+11.80 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 63 of their last 108 games (+9.05 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 66 games (+8.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 48 away games (+4.75 Units / 9% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 70 of their last 111 games (+28.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.75 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+0.90 Units / 10% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 62-63 against the Run Line (-3.45 Units / -2.28% ROI).
- 73-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.45 Units / -1.71% ROI
- 58-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.7 Units / -7.75% ROI
- 62-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.1 Units / -1.53% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 55-70 against the Run Line (-18.45 Units / -12.36% ROI).
- 67-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.3 Units / -10.51% ROI
- 47-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -32.45 Units / -23.78% ROI
- 73-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +21.05 Units / 15.18% ROI
Braves vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jarred Kelenic (ATL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Braves vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gio Urshela (ATL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Braves vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Braves vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Fried (ATL) | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting .447 (17-for-38) against Aaron Nola this month (3 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — first Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (352/1,019) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 97th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (147/454) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .207 (156-for-753) against Aaron Nola when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 95th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .588 (10-for-17) against Max Fried when going through the lineup the first time in a game in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .221 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .588 (10-for-17) against Max Fried when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .232 — second Percentile.
Max Fried has walked 4 of 18 batters (22%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an OBP of .611 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .295 — second Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are 17-11 (.607) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Phillies are 6-2 (.750) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Phillies are just 2-11 (.154) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 63-11 (.851) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are just 3-8 (.273) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .427.
The Braves are 30-17 (.638) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Braves are 65-46 (.586) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Braves are 74-134 (.356) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .279.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .348 (1,519 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Games involving the Phillies went OVER in 89% of their games (69.3% ROI) after a loss as underdogs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
The Phillies have a winning percentage of 65% at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Phillies are batting .265 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .483 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Braves have an average Exit Velocity of 90.7 MPH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.
The Braves are batting .269 against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Braves hitters are slugging .684 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .572.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .235 against Phillies pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies have won 53% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Braves pitchers this month (18 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jimmy Herget (Atlanta Braves): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tyler Matzek (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Michael Harris (Atlanta Braves): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Spencer Strider (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Fried (Atlanta Braves): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Luplow (Atlanta Braves): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Austin Riley (Atlanta Braves): Personal, Paternity
- Ray Kerr (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ozzie Albies (Atlanta Braves): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Ronald Acuna (Atlanta Braves): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 60-Day IL
- Rodolfo Castro (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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