- The Cubs are -125 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies vs Cubs Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Phillies / Cubs TV Channel: NSPA | MARQ | TBS
The Philadelphia Phillies (+105) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-125) on Tuesday, July 2, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Phillies are 55-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 40-45 ATS.
Phillies vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Michael Mercado 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Hayden Wesneski 2-4, 3.60 ERA
Phillies vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -175 | O 9.5 -120 | +105 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +145 | U 9.5 +100 | -125 |
Phillies vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 37 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Rafael Marchan has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 6 games (+12.00 Units / 200% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christopher Morel has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 39 games (+19.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 44 games (+14.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games at home (+12.60 Units / 90% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+12.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+12.40 Units / 95% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 47 of their last 69 games (+23.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 67 games (+22.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 44 of their last 66 games (+18.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 68 games (+14.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 42 of their last 67 games (+13.25 Units / 16% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 59 games (+15.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 73 games (+11.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 59 games (+10.15 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 40 games at home (+1.65 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.80 Units / 13% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 45-39 against the Run Line (+5.1 Units / 5.05% ROI).
- 55-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +11 Units / 7.75% ROI
- 36-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.65 Units / -12.54% ROI
- 43-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.35 Units / 3.65% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 40-45 against the Run Line (-14.9 Units / -12.51% ROI).
- 39-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.45 Units / -8.2% ROI
- 36-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.4 Units / -15.41% ROI
- 46-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.55 Units / 6.99% ROI
Cubs vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
Cubs vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Brandon Marsh (PHI) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Cubs vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
Cubs vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hayden Wesneski (CHC) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +125 |
| Michael Mercado (PHI) | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +120 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Mercado has limited playing time.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hayden Wesneski has a strike rate of just 58% (86/148) with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 7th lowest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 64% — eighth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 23% (8/34) against Hayden Wesneski on non-fastballs this season — 5th lowest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 45% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 23% (8/34) against Hayden Wesneski on non-fastballs this season — 4th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 23% (7/31) against Hayden Wesneski on sliders this season — 8th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 40% — seventh Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Phillies are 9-17 (.346) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Phillies are 48-6 (.889) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
The Phillies are 4-22 (.154) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Phillies are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Cubs are just 3-14 (.176) after a road win this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .444.
The Cubs are 10-5 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 30-5 (.857) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .944.
The Cubs are just 28-8 (.778) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .894.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .440 against LHP since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .775 (2,969 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
Phillies hitters are slugging .444 against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Phillies hitters have a groundball batting average of .310 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have 23 strikeouts in 67 PA’s (34%) against LHP over the last 14 days — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cubs hitters have 9 strikeouts in 19 PA’s (47%) against LHP over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Cubs are batting just .321 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .343.
The Cubs are batting .164 on pitches out of the zone since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 14 of 421 batters (3%) over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .126 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Phillies pitchers over the last 14 days — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 70 of 753 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 39 double plays in 621 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cubs pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (4,045 batted balls) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Cubs vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
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