- The Phillies are -130 favorites vs the Cubs
- Phillies vs Cubs Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Phillies / Cubs TV Channel: NSPA | MARQ | MLBN
The Philadelphia Phillies (-130) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+110) on Thursday, July 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Phillies are 57-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 40-47 ATS.
Phillies vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez 6-3, 2.35 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon 4-4, 3.03 ERA
Phillies vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +135 | O 7.5 +100 | -130 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -160 | U 7.5 -120 | +110 |
Phillies vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 57.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 37 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Rafael Marchan has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 6 games (+12.00 Units / 200% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christopher Morel has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 39 games (+19.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 44 games (+14.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games at home (+12.60 Units / 90% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+12.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+12.40 Units / 95% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 48 of their last 71 games (+23.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 69 games (+22.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 45 of their last 68 games (+18.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 70 games (+16.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 44 of their last 69 games (+15.25 Units / 18% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 61 games (+15.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 61 games (+12.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 75 games (+9.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.75 Units / 8% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 47-39 against the Run Line (+7.65 Units / 7.37% ROI).
- 57-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +13 Units / 9.03% ROI
- 38-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.65 Units / -10.15% ROI
- 43-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.1 Units / 1.17% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 40-47 against the Run Line (-17.65 Units / -14.49% ROI).
- 39-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.75 Units / -10.2% ROI
- 38-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.4 Units / -12.97% ROI
- 46-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.3 Units / 4.48% ROI
Cubs vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Patrick Wisdom (CHC) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Kody Clemens (PHI) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Cubs vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Brandon Marsh (PHI) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Cubs vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Kody Clemens (PHI) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Cubs vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jameson Taillon (CHC) | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
| Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (166/273) against Cristopher Sanchez this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Cristopher Sanchez has allowed an OBP of just .118 (51 PA’s) over the last 14 days — best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .309 — 100th Percentile.
Cristopher Sanchez has allowed an OBP of just .056 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .316 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (157/248) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 162 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jameson Taillon has allowed an OPS of just .182 (23 PA’s) vs left-handed batters — 3rd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .728 — 97th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .091 (2-for-22) against Jameson Taillon — tied for 4th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .247 — 96th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has walked 13 of 491 right-handed batters (3%) since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has walked 23 of 899 right-handed batters (3%) since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 162 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 99th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Phillies are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 9-17 (.346) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Phillies are 4-22 (.154) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .055.
The Phillies are 10-2 (.833) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .544.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Cubs are just 17-36 (.321) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Cubs are just 3-14 (.176) after a road win this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .449.
The Cubs are just 2-35 (.054) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Cubs are just 30-5 (.857) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .945.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have a groundball batting average of .312 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .333 (4,746 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Phillies hitters have 731 strikeouts in 2,997 PA’s (24%) against LHP since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .444 against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have 12 strikeouts in 23 PA’s (52%) against LHP over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Cubs are batting just .322 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .343.
The Cubs have a winning percentage of just 38% on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Cubs hitters are averaging 3.97 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .140 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Phillies pitchers over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 16 of 421 batters (4%) over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 72 of 771 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Cubs vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
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